This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision: Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane or Derrick Henry? All are being selected in the RB5-RB7 range, based on current ADP. Each has top-5 upside, but each has distinct risk that could determine your season.
Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these players and more for added context on player expectations entering the 2025 season.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (RB5)
McCaffrey's 2024 was derailed by injury. Coming off an Achilles injury, McCaffrey did not make his season debut until Week 10. He struggled thereafter before suffering a knee injury Week 13, and was shut down for the season.
He ranked in the 30th percentile in yards after contact, but that can be reasonably chalked up to the Achilles injury, and despite being in his eighth season, McCaffrey has averaged just 168 carries per year, which perhaps will preserve him more than expected at age 29.
The 49ers have made it clear that McCaffrey will remain the focal point of the offense this season. Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak recently said the team plans to "get him the ball as much as we can."
When healthy, McCaffrey is unrivaled. He finished as the PPR RB1 or RB2 in each of his last four healthy seasons. No running back has matched that level of dominance.
Still, three injury-plagued years in the last
As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision: Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane or Derrick Henry? All are being selected in the RB5-RB7 range, based on current ADP. Each has top-5 upside, but each has distinct risk that could determine your season.
Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these players and more for added context on player expectations entering the 2025 season.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (RB5)
McCaffrey's 2024 was derailed by injury. Coming off an Achilles injury, McCaffrey did not make his season debut until Week 10. He struggled thereafter before suffering a knee injury Week 13, and was shut down for the season.
He ranked in the 30th percentile in yards after contact, but that can be reasonably chalked up to the Achilles injury, and despite being in his eighth season, McCaffrey has averaged just 168 carries per year, which perhaps will preserve him more than expected at age 29.
The 49ers have made it clear that McCaffrey will remain the focal point of the offense this season. Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak recently said the team plans to "get him the ball as much as we can."
When healthy, McCaffrey is unrivaled. He finished as the PPR RB1 or RB2 in each of his last four healthy seasons. No running back has matched that level of dominance.
Still, three injury-plagued years in the last five seasons make him a high-risk, high-reward pick. His top-5 ADP demands perfection, and that's a tall order given the recent durability record.
The bottom line: McCaffrey has unmatched upside, but the injury risk is undeniable. If you're drafting him in Round 2, it's a bet on health. For risk-tolerant managers, he's worth the gamble.
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (RB6)
Achane delivered a massive 2024 breakout with 1,499 scrimmage yards, 12 touchdowns and 78 receptions. He played all 17 games and gave fantasy managers elite PPR production. His rushing efficiency dropped from a wild 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie to 4.5, but he still ranked in the 73rd percentile in yards after contact.
The concern is volume. Achane saw 203 carries last season (22nd in the NFL) and his workload might not expand in 2025 despite coachspeak to the contrary. More important, he was highly reliant on receiving usage tied to Tua Tagovailoa. In four games without Tagovailoa last year, Achane averaged just 7.1 PPR points. That's a steep drop from his usual output.
At 188 pounds, he remains one of the lightest featured backs in the league. If Miami manages his touches or adds more rotation, any dip in targets could sink his RB1 value.
The bottom line: Achane is electric, but highly dependent on efficiency and quarterback stability. His current ADP assumes perfection. He's worth the pick, but don't expect major value beyond cost.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (RB7)
Henry showed no signs of slowing in 2024, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns on 325 carries. It was the second-best season of his career. He averaged a career-high 5.9 yards per carry, posted an 85th percentile broken tackle rate and remained an ironman with 15 or more games in eight of nine seasons.
Baltimore unlocked even more value late in the year by adding shotgun and fullback wrinkles to its ground game. In his final five games, including the playoffs, Henry averaged 143 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns.
He won't give you much in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes last year. But he's a rare RB with a stable role and elite floor. Despite being 31, there's been no sign of regression.
The bottom line: Henry combines elite durability with week-winning upside. If you want safety and production in Round 2, Henry is your best bet among this trio.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP RB Values
Each of these running backs has a clear case at ADP but offers different paths to value. McCaffrey has the best track record and the highest ceiling, but you're betting against recent history with his health. Achane is a dynamic playmaker with PPR juice, but may be tied too closely to his quarterback. Henry continues to defy age and injury risk, delivering reliable RB1 numbers and a safe weekly floor.
If you're seeking stability with league-winning potential, Henry is the preferred choice in this range. If you want the home-run swing, McCaffrey still has the best ceiling in fantasy football.
If you're looking to bet on any of these players' futures, see Rotowire's suggestions: https://www.rotowire.com/picks/nfl/
For more analysis on all positions, explore my latest articles at Rotowire: https://www.rotowire.com/writer/jim-coventry-465
