Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Mispriced TEs to Target

Tight end remains one of the most unpredictable positions in fantasy football. While top-tier options provide a competitive advantage to a fantasy team, the effectiveness of the majority of the position hinges on usage trends, offensive design and scoring efficiency. Below are tight ends whose current ADPs either present strong value or serious red flags for 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these tight ends and more for added context on player expectations heading into 2025.

Tight Ends to Target at ADP

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (TE2)

McBride exploded in 2024 for 111 catches and 1,146 yards, with the highest air yards share of any tight end. His 147 targets led the Cardinals, and he ranked in the 80th percentile in yards after the catch. After Arizona leaned into two-TE sets post-Week 5, he averaged 17.2 PPR points per game. He scored only twice, not finding the end zone until Week 17, but his catches and yards were enough to make him TE2 in PPR last season. McBride often goes a round after No. 1 TE Brock Bowers. If you miss Bowers, McBride offers equal or better value.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (TE15)

Ferguson quietly delivered in 2024 with 59 receptions despite three missed games and unstable quarterback play. In seven games with Dak Prescott, he topped 70 yards three times and had four double-digit PPR performances. His 60th percentile YAC shows he's not just a volume guy — he can move after the catch. As one of Prescott's most trusted weapons, Ferguson has a steady role in the red zone and could function as the third option in Dallas' passing game. He's an ideal TE2 with weekly upside.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (TE19)

Freiermuth tied his career high with seven touchdowns in 2024 and finished with 65 catches for 653 yards. His best stretch came after Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye when he had at least 9.9 PPR points in seven of his final nine games. though his yards-after-catch rate ranked just 41st percentile and he had more than four targets in only four of those games. This season, Freiermuth is a prime candidate to be the No. 2 option in an Arthur Smith-led offense with DK Metcalf the only proven pass-catcher in the offense. He's a strong target once the top-14 TEs are off the board.

Mason Taylor, New York Jets (TE26)

Taylor enters 2025 as the likely starting tight end for the Jets and is one of the best late-round  tight end sleepers. He brings a strong pass-catching profile with natural hands, route awareness and yards-after-catch ability. With Justin Fields under center, there's additional upside. Fields helped Cole Kmet deliver a career season in 2023, showing a clear track record of feeding tight ends in rhythm. If Taylor emerges as the No. 2 option behind Garrett Wilson, he could significantly outperform his TE26 ADP.

Tight Ends to Avoid at ADP

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (TE4)

LaPorta posted 726 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024, finishing as a top-7 tight end. He ranked in the 91st percentile in team air yards and 71st in yards after the catch. But context matters. When Detroit's defense was healthy and controlling games, LaPorta averaged just 2.8 targets through Week 7. His late-season production coincided with a banged-up defense and inflated passing volume. With the defense expected to rebound, LaPorta's weekly targets could return to early season levels. At a TE4 price, that inconsistency is a red flag.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (TE7)

Kelce's 2024 season revealed clear signs of decline: 823 yards, only three touchdowns and a career-low 8.6 yards per catch. His yards-after-catch rate fell to the 16th percentile, and his yards per target has dropped three consecutive seasons. He's still Patrick Mahomes' tight end, but the explosiveness that once separated him from the field is fading. At age 35, Kelce's ADP is propped up by legacy, not performance. Unless he falls outside the top 10 of tight ends, he's not worth the risk.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts (TE9)

Warren enters the NFL with one of the most productive college stat lines among tight ends: 104 catches, 1,233 yards and eight scores in 2024. He brings size, red-zone skill and the ability to beat soft coverage. But the situation is working against him. The Colts are a run-heavy offense led by two of the league's most erratic quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. Even if Warren has the talent, the volume likely won't follow. He's better suited for the TE15 range, not the top 10.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (TE14)

Kincaid struggled to deliver on volume last year. He caught just 58.7 percent of his targets, ranking in the ninth percentile in catch rate, and failed to reach 54 yards in any game. He was targeted at least six times on eight occasions, but with no explosion to show for it. Worse yet, Dawson Knox out-snapped him the final three games. If the Bills continue that split, Kincaid simply won't see enough usage to matter at TE14. Until his role stabilizes, he's a shaky investment.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (TE16)

Pitts averaged 50 catches and 635 yards his last two seasons, and his usage continues to trend downward. He had a solid run Weeks 3-8 last season, but collapsed after that, failing to deliver down the stretch. With limited red-zone work and declining targets, he's no longer a breakout candidate. Despite the name value, Pitts is now a mid-range TE2 without the upside to justify the pick. He should fall into the TE18-22 range in most drafts.

Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP TE Values

Finding value at tight end means knowing when to prioritize usage, role stability and team context. Pat Freiermuth and Mason Taylor offer the kind of upside that can outperform their draft positions. On the other hand, aging veterans and inconsistent options like Kelce, Pitts and Kincaid carry far more downside than their ADPs suggest.

Keep an eye on camp reports and preseason usage patterns — those could reveal which tight ends are truly set for volume. And if you're looking to bet on any of these players' futures, be sure to visit Rotowire's Picks and Props tool for context beyond ADP.

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