This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for July 4: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.15 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 79-4-1 (-9.31 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Betting Insights
Bryan Woo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons especially at home where the ballpark plays to his strengths. His 2025 home numbers are 2.08 ERA, 0.82 WHIP against a 3.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Bailey Falter has decent numbers on the season, but if you dig into his last 30 days there are a TON of issues. He's pitched to a 5.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over that span. He allows way too many baserunners and the lack of swing and misses make matters even worse.
As usual, with my three best bets of the day I am focusing on the best starting pitcher matchup first. Laying -1.5 runs in a game with a total of 7.0-7.5 is risky, but the spread between Woo and Falter is one of the biggest on the slate.
MLB Best Bets: Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +114)
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bets and Predictions
Home field advantage is priced into moneylines at a pretty good tax, but in some instances it just does not make sense. The Guardians are just 20-20 at home and they have played terrible baseball over the last month (2-8, 6-14, and 10-20) over the last 10/20/30 games. Meanwhile the Tigers keep rolling with a 54-34 record.
The pitching matchup favors the Tigers as IL-returnee Reese Olson has become one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 2.37 ERA over his last 7 starts and only 1 homerun allowed. Slade Cecconi has been solid in his last 7 starts as well, but the 6 homers allowed are a huge red flag.
I will lay the small price on the road dog here as they are just the superior team, playing better, and have the edge in starting pitching.
MLB Best Bets: Tigers ML for 1 unit (BetRivers -125)
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Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
Two of the worst pitchers and teams on the slate playing in Coors Field has me looking at the OVER and even though 11 runs for these two teams is a stretch. This is just a couple of terrible pitchers in Adrian Houser and Antonio Senzatela.
MLB Best Bets: White Sox/Rockies OVER 11 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -115)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +114)
- Tigers ML for 1 unit (BetRivers -125)
- White Sox/Rockies OVER 11 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -115)
