This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Happy Birthday America! Our Friday main slate at FanDuel features nine games, and starts at a slightly earlier 6:40 p.m. EDT. Only five arms are priced at $9,100 or greater, so it's not an elite pitching slate, and that seemingly is supported by the run totals, as no game comes in lower than 8.0, with Rockies-White Sox leading the way at 11.0, followed by Giants-Athletics at 10.0, with three more games at 9.0 or 9.5 runs.
The Dodgers (-178) check in as the slate's biggest favorite, followed closely by the Braves (-174) despite their woeful offense. Weather looks dry across the slate so postgame fireworks appear safe! Wind doesn't appear to be a major factor in any game across the evening.
Pitching
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. BAL ($9,500): I'm between Strider and Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,500) as my preferred payup, and it's as close as their prices are. Rodriguez hasn't allowed more than two runs in five straight, and the Royals are statistically the worst team in the league against lefties. But Strider has shown slightly more efficiency, giving him more innings potential, thus higher strikeout, win and quality start upside. The Orioles' offense is top 10 against righties with a .322 wOBA, but Strider has been good against lefties, allowing a .311 wOBA as he can bury his slider in on their hands/knees. Baltimore still swings freely, striking out 23.2 percent of the time. I'm highly skeptical on the Atlanta moneyline, but that isn't because of their starter.
Quinn Priester, MIL at MIA ($8,700): Under no circumstances should we roster Priester chasing his 61 FanDuel points in his last outing, and that's unfortunately elevated his price. But he's got a soft matchup in a pitcher's park against the Marlins, who rank 24th of righties with a .315 wOBA. Priester was terrific all June, not just his last outing, boosting his strikeouts to 9.6 per nine, lowering his walks to 1.7 per nine and posting a 2.60 xFIP. We're unlikely to target any Marlins bats, so Priester presents safely even without the surge in form.
Charlie Morton, BAL at ATL ($7,200): How many times in this column can I remind folks about how awful the Braves offense is? They've scored 10 runs across their last 36 innings, and seven of those came in one inning off the Angels bullpen. So that's three runs in 35 innings outside of one blowup. Yes, they remain capable of that, but the probability remains slim. Morton should have a little extra juice facing his old mates, and he's gone for at least 37 FanDuel points in four of his last six. He's got slate-breaking upside if he can generate swing-and-miss results and is priced low enough we don't really care if his floor has minimal potential.
Top Targets
The Rangers have been far too inconsistent to trust, but the form for Corey Seager ($3,300) and Marcus Semien ($3,100) is far too solid to not consider them, even if not priced as elite options. Seager has an eight-game hitting streak that's seen him homer four times, score 10 and drive in eight. Semien, too, has an eight-game hitting streak, homering twice while driving in eight and scoring nine times. Padres' starter Randy Vasquez comes with a 3.14 home ERA, but 5.51 xFIP and 50.4 percent fly ball rate.
We can stay in San Diego and target higher-priced options. Rangers' starter Kumar Rocker has allowed 12 runs across his last 10.1 road innings. Neither Fernando Tatis ($3,800) or Manny Machado ($3,600) are in great form, unfortunately, but if Rocker's road woes continue (11.34 overall ERA), that can change quickly.
If you're not buying Morton, Matt Olson ($3,700) makes plenty of sense, as the Orioles' starter is allowing a .438 wOBA and 1.009 OPS to lefties on the road. Olson has a 33-game on base streak, but has only posted double-digit fantasy points nine times in his last 25 games.
Bargain Bats
I honestly don't have a clue how we're supposed to attack the Rockies-White Sox game. The White Sox are favored, but can you have any faith in their bats despite the Coors Field factor and the fact that Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela has been awful? Give me Andrew Benintendi ($3,200), who's the only option with any decent form, though perhaps a flier on Colson Montgomery ($2,500), who is expected to make his debut, is merited. I don't feel required to fit in Rockie bats against Adrian Houser, but Tyler Freeman ($3,300) continues to hit (22 over his last 18 games) for some stability.
The Dodgers don't have a clear plan on the mound Friday, but I'm not buying the Astros as the slate's lowest-scoring offense, coming with a 3.6 run expectancy. Cam Smith ($2,900) has 17 hits over his last nine games, and the price isn't in line with that form.
JP Sears has a 6.68 ERA at home, allowing a .435 wOBA and 1.024 OPS to lefties and .428/1.018 to righties, opening up the entire Giants lineup. Willy Adames ($2,900) could offer some sneaky value, as he's finally hitting a bit, reaching base 15 times over his last nine games.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Lance McCullers (Astros): Freddie Freeman ($3,500), Will Smith ($3,400), Mookie Betts ($3,200)
McCullers hasn't allowed a run on the road all season and has been statistically worse against righties, the first of which is absolutely an anomaly, and the latter should see the gap close some. But we've got a rare chance to stack the Dodgers lineup for a fair price. It won't hurt my feelings if you omit Betts, but he's 7-for-15 (.467) off McCullers with a 1.219 OPS, enough for me to back him. Smith has a .399 wOBA and 158 wRC+ off righties while homering in two of his last three. Freeman has been more streaky than we're accustomed to, but has seven hits in his last four and carries a .403 wOBA and 161 wRC+ off righties into Friday. Andy Pages ($3,000), Hyeseong Kim ($2,600) and Miguel Rojas ($2,300) are all viable if you need more salary relief.
Blue Jays vs. Kyle Hendricks (Angels): George Springer ($3,500), Vladimir Guerrero ($3,400), Addison Barger ($2,900)
Hedricks has a 5.44 road ERA, backed by a 4.85 xFIP, allowing a 46.5 percent fly ball rate and 1.7 HR/9. And the Blue Jays are white hot offensively. Barger has a .381 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .281 ISO off righties, has homered in two straight and three of five, and simply looks mispriced. Springer, too, is scortching, with eight hits, four homers, 11 RBI and seven runs scored in his last three while posting a .391 wOBA, 154 wRC+ and .229 ISO off same-handed arms. Guerrero isn't a must use, but his .344 wOBA and 122 wRC+ off righties is at least above average.