The Week 10 slate is an interesting one considering there will be plenty of key players resting or playing limited snaps, but I'm focusing on a pair of non-contending teams that should be playing their regulars in by pair of best bets.
Read on for a look at which Conference Championship Game UFL betting scenarios catch my eye on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions Best Bets (Sunday, June 8, 3:00 p.m. ET)
The Panthers and Stallions have a one-sided modern-day history that's seen Birmingham take all five UFL matchups between the two teams over the last two seasons. That includes a 31-18 win in last June's USFL Conference Championship Game, and they're once again set to reprise the rivalry following a regular season where Birmingham was more vulnerable on defense than in past years and Michigan discovered what might be its best quarterback of the team's current iteration in Bryce Perkins.
Nevertheless, the familiarity is extremely high between these two teams, and with this being the third meeting in just over two months between the two squads, the conditions could very well be ripe for a low-scoring affair. As it is, the first meeting in Week 2 finished with just 33 total points, even though Perkins wasn't yet at the controls of Michigan's offense at that point.
Perkins also sat out the Week 9 rematch due to an ankle injury and that game finished with 48 total points, but defensive intensity naturally ramps up in the playoffs and the the two teams know each other's playbooks fairly well at this point. Additionally, the Stallions still allowed the second-fewest points (16.7) and second-fewest yards (267.2) per game this season, and the Panthers weren't far behind with respective figures of 19.8 and 292.0 in those categories.
Given the circumstances cited, a game that falls somewhere below a total that's already fairly elevated is very much within the range of potential outcomes.
UFL Picks for Panthers at Stallions
- Under 46.5 points (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
DC Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, June 8, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The Battlehawks have gotten the better of the Defenders over the four games these two squads have played since the UFL's inception last season, with St. Louis holding a 3-1 advantage. However, this season, DC notched a 27-15 win at The Dome back in Week 3, and although the Battlehawks recorded a 13-8 victory in Week 10, that was a game where both teams rested plenty of starters in anticipation of this game.
All key skill-position players for either side will be healthy for this rematch, which will play out in front of what figures to be a raucous home crowd for the Battlehawks that could also certainly have some infiltrators from another passionate UFL fan base in that of the Defenders. The environment shouldn't faze Jordan Ta'amu and his teammates, especially with them already having notched a victory there this season.
The Battlehawks are arguably better off through the air at this point with Max Duggan under center instead of Week 3 starter Manny Wilkins. Yet, while Duggan has improved, he hasn't consistently proven capable of leading long downfield scoring marches, and he's facing an aggressive Defenders defense that isn't shy about coming after the quarterback and recorded the league's third-most sacks (22) while also picking off seven passes.
On the other side, Defenders QB Jordan Ta'amu put together his best spring yet, throwing for a career-high 2,153 yards and 17 touchdowns while also tossing a career-low (for a full season) four picks. Granted, two of those interceptions came in that Week 3 game, but Ta'amu significantly tightened up his ball security after that contest while seeing Cornell Powell successfully fill the downfield void created by Ty Scott's season-ending arm injury.
Deon Jackson has also taken on the lead-back role over the plodding Abram Smith during the latter portion of the campaign, while Chris Rowland, Braylon Sanders, and even tight end Briley Moore-McKinney have also proven capable of providing big plays in the passing game. Therefore, while it could be either team's game in terms of the final outcome, I like the Defenders to keep any loss to less than a field goal.
UFL Picks for Defenders at Battlehawks
- Defenders +2.5 (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
UFL Conference Championship Games Best Bets Recap
- Panthers-Stallions Under 46.5 points (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Defenders +2.5 (-112 on DraftKingsl Sportsbook)
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