This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open Women's Final: American Coco Gauff Chases Second Grand Slam
The French Open women's final will be played Saturday on the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. The top two seeds face off in a clash of contrasting styles, and the winner will be a first-time French Open champion.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Saturday's women's championship match.
French Open Tennis Odds: Sabalenka vs. Gauff
Aryna Sabalenka (-215) vs. Coco Gauff (+160)
Sabalenka has been a notch above the rest of the WTA Tour over the past year, with a firm grasp on the No. 1 ranking. Clay is the least natural surface for her aggressive game style, but the big-hitting Belarusian has fared just fine on this surface, beating Gauff in the final of the clay-court WTA 1000 event in Madrid last month and most recently dethroning queen of clay Iga Swiatek with a 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-0 win in the semifinals here to snap Swiatek's 26-match French Open winning streak. Prior to that match against Swiatek, Sabalenka hadn't dropped a set in this tournament. This will be Sabalenka's first French Open final and sixth Grand Slam final overall. She's 3-2 in the previous five, including a 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 loss to Gauff in the final of the 2023 U.S. Open, where nerves and a hostile crowd got to Sabalenka after she built an early lead.
Their head-to-head is tied 5-5 overall and 1-1 on clay. While Gauff came up short in Madrid, her defensively oriented game is better suited for clay, as she can extend rallies by scrambling into the corners but also has enough power to end rallies herself once she gets on the front foot. In fact, clay is probably Gauff's best surface, but she just hasn't been able to solve Swiatek at the French Open, losing to Iga in each of the previous years, including the 2022 championship match. Gauff took advantage of a favorable draw as the No. 2 seed. The only player seeded higher than 20th that she faced en route to the final was No. 7 seed Madison Keys in the quarterfinals, who is also the only one to take a set off Gauff in this tournament. Gauff had some serving struggles in the early rounds but has sharpened her game in the business end of this major. This matchup is likely to fall into the familiar pattern of Sabalenka controlling play and Gauff defending. It's Sabalenka's match to lose since her bigger strikes can dictate play, but we have seen nerves and errors creep up a few times for the Belarusian in big matches. The steadier Gauff will force Sabalenka to consistently hit extra shots to finish off rallies, and the American underdog be ready to pounce if Sabalenka starts spraying the ball.
French Open Women's Final Prediction: Gauff def. Sabalenka 3-6, 7-6, 7-5
