The Great American Getaway 400 Preview: The Tricky Triangle

With the conclusion of the Mexico City event, we're now entering the hot summer months of racing as the series will pay a visit to Pocono Raceway for the first time in the 2025 season. The three-turn oval located in the mountains of Pennsylvania is unlike any other oval track on the circuit. Pocono has been referred to many times over the years as the oval that races like a road course. The extremely long straight-aways and the three distinctly different corners are the primary reason why we have more of a road course feel. You can't hit the set up on your stock car to optimize all three turns, so the crew chiefs have to make their cars as comfortable for the drivers as possible. This usually means making the car easier to turn in two of the three corners and sacrificing the other.  These factors make this track race not like an oval at all, but more like a road course due to the relatively flat banking and three distinctly different turns. 

Now that we've completed 16 races of the 26 that determines the field for the Chase for the Cup, we're on the downhill run towards NASCAR's playoff. The Tricky Triangle in Pocono makes a good, challenging track to mark the beginning of the stretch run in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. We're racing for the first and only time this year at Pocono Raceway and that's a break with history. For many years we raced two events at the huge Pennsylvania track. We broke with that history and tradition three seasons ago and now race a lone, 400-mile event at Pocono.

Since we'll be racing just one time at Pocono Raceway we need to take a quick look at the loop stats for this unique facility. Coming off the races at Nashville, Michigan and Mexico City, we could see some shakeup in our driver group for this event. This track is so unlike any other on the circuit that we'll really need to focus on recent races at Pocono for this weekend's drivers. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form for this race, and we'll factor in the current hot streaks as needed as a predictive modifier. As you'll see in the table below, we have an easily identifiable group of drivers that love to race on the three-turn, 2.5-mile Pennsylvania track. The loop stats shown below cover the last 20 years or 37 races at Pocono Raceway.

Pocono Raceway had been a NASCAR track up for grabs for years. With Kyle Busch's victory here in 2017, we saw the Toyota camp run away with five-straight victories at the Tricky Triangle. However, the last few seasons have seen the Pocono track tilt back towards more of a parity among manufacturers. Ford, Toyota and Chevrolet drivers have each won in the last three events at Pocono Raceway, and that will be an interesting statistic heading into this weekend's Great American Getaway 400. Since Ford has been a bit down compared to Toyota and Chevrolet this season, it will be interesting to see if there's a changing of the manufacturer guard at Pocono or if we will still stay with this trend of parity. With the ball squarely in Ford's court due to recent wins on ovals, this weekend is a timely visit to Pocono Raceway for drivers of this brand. Ford drivers have won three of the last six intermediate and larger oval events and should be on their game for the Tricky Triangle.

With Ryan Blaney's victory here last season, Ford will be charged with defending their turf this Sunday afternoon. Blaney's win was the first Ford victory at Pocono Raceway since 2020. Chevrolet is fresh off the win this past weekend (Shane van Gisbergen) at Mexico City and will carry the momentum into Pennsylvania this week. The best positioned Chevrolet drivers to challenge the Ford camp will be William Byron and Kyle Larson. They've been the top two performers for this camp most of the spring and summer and will continue to be top contenders going forward. We'll examine the recent trends as well some historical stats at Pocono and give you the drivers that you need to dominate this weekend's Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin leads the driver rating in the table above thanks to his seven-career Pocono wins. Three of those have come since the 2019 season along with two runner-up finishes at Pocono. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is just as sharp at this track as a veteran as he was as a young NASCAR star over 15 years ago. In this event one year ago, Hamlin led 31 laps and finished runner-up to Ryan Blaney for his second runner-up finish at Pocono since the 2020 season. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota will vigorously race for the win this Sunday as this is one of his better tracks on the circuit. Hamlin loves racing at this unique oval and his incredible 66-percent Top-10 rate and over 850 laps led at this track speaks to his excellence at Pocono Raceway. 

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star is trying to add to the three victories he has already this season with another win this weekend at Pocono Raceway. Larson has never won at the Pennsylvania oval, but he has finished runner-up there twice in his career and has five-career Top-5 finishes at the Tricky Triangle (29-percent). The Top-10 rate stands at a strong 53-percent for Larson at Pocono Raceway. Coming off the disappointment of a 36th-place finish at Mexico City this past week, the veteran driver would seem to be motivated for a big rebound this weekend. Larson has been strong on the intermediate ovals this season, now he just needs to step up his game on the larger ovals to propel him into victory lane.   

William Byron – Byron has been a man on a mission this season with one win and 10 Top-10 finishes already to this point in the season and he sits atop the driver points as we visit Pocono this weekend. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has also enjoyed some of that success on the bigger ovals with a recent second-place at Charlotte and third-place at Talladega. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has had good stats at Pocono Raceway with a 55-percent Top-10 rate in 11 starts, 130 laps led and two pole positions. In this event one year ago, he sat on the outside pole and battled among the leaders all afternoon before finally finishing a strong fourth-place. Byron brings pretty high-end ceiling to the table and has shown the capability to put on surprise performances in 2025.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing driver has reversed some of his early season struggles in the last few weeks. Blaney has grabbed a win and three Top 5's in the last six races to climb from eighth-- to seventh-place in the driver standings in the last few weeks. Blaney is a two-time Pocono Raceway winner and has a steady 47-percent Top-10 rate over 15 starts. In this event one year ago, he led 44 laps and took a convincing win in the Great American Getaway 400. The 13.4 career average finish at the Tricky Triangle is another good indicator for this weekend. Given the No. 12 Ford team's recent surge in performance, we believe the Penske Racing youngster is a top contender to win in Sunday's 400-mile battle at Pocono Raceway.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott finally snatched his first-career victory at the Tricky Triangle in 2022. It would come by way of disqualification of both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch who finished 1-2, but a victory it was nonetheless. The Hendrick Motorsports star also sports a strong 67-percent Top-10 rate at Pocono and career 13.5 average finish. He's been a consistent producer and good finisher here right up to his win of three seasons ago. Elliott has been a bit hit-or-miss on the intermediate and larger ovals this season, and that is a bit concerning. However, his personal record at this 2.5-mile tri-oval is simply too good to ignore. Elliott and the No. 9 Chevrolet team will be reliable performers in the Great American Getaway 400.     

Alex Bowman – The big tracks have yielded some success for Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team. He collected Top 10's earlier this spring at Talladega and Kansas, and Bowman is coming off a big, boosting Top-5 finish in Mexico this past week. Pocono Raceway has been a bit hit-or-miss over his career, but it's been trending in the right direction for this driver and team in recent starts. Bowman's last six Pocono finishes are ninth-, first-, seventh-, 11th-, 24th and third-place for a strong 9.2 average finish over the recent span. We believe the momentum of his Mexico City Top 5 will spur the veteran driver to a good performance in this 400-mile battle at the Tricky Triangle.  

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been coming on strong in recent events. A Top 5 at Charlotte and more recently a Top 10 at Michigan has Keselowski trending in the right direction. As to Pocono Raceway, he's had a long and very successful career racing at this three-turn oval. Keselowski is a one-time Pocono winner, he's led well over 240 laps for his career here. The veteran driver owns 11 Top-5 (41-percent) and 16 Top-10 (59-percent) finishes at Pocono Raceway. The 10.8 average finish across 27-career starts speaks volumes of his production and consistency here. Keselowski has only finished off the lead lap twice here in 15 seasons.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a one-time Pocono winner, but his consistency at this three-turn, 2.5-mile track has been spotty over the years. Logano's 11 Top-10 finishes in 29-career starts works out to a questionable 38-percent rate. That's a lower percentage than we like to see in star drivers. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford has been on the surge of late. Logano grabbed a big win at the Texas oval a few weeks ago and he was a strong fourth-place at the Nashville oval just after that. This driver and team are turning up their performance as the summer wears on and this is a timely visit to Pocono Raceway. Logano finished a strong fifth-place in this event one year ago and that demonstrates his potential for this Sunday. We believe the Penske Racing star will be a Top-10 threat in the Great American Getaway 400.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Pocono & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell has been racing the best of his career in 2025 so we're very optimistic about this start at Pocono Raceway. Although he's yet to have big impact at the three-turn oval, this could be his best start at the track in his Cup Series career. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has a good enough resume at the Tricky Triangle with three Top 10's (43-percent) and he's nabbed two Top 10's in his last three starts at Pocono Raceway to lower his average finish here to 16.3. In this event one year ago, Bell qualified 13th-place on the grid and finished a respectable 12th-place in the Great American Getaway 400. We believe he'll be even better than that Sunday in Pennsylvania.  

Ross Chastain – Chastain has never been a big performer at Pocono Raceway. No Top 10's and 28.6 average finish, but he began to show some promise at the track two seasons ago with a Top-15 finish at the 2.5-mile tri-oval. Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team have been very consistent this season with one win and a 50-percent Top-10 rate through 16 races this season. That works out to a strong 12.6 average finish thus far in the 2025 season. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is coming off a strong sixth-place finish at the huge Michigan oval a couple weeks ago and that's a good look coming to Pocono Raceway. We believe Chastain will earn his first-career Pocono Top 10 this weekend in Pennsylvania.   

Tyler Reddick – Riding a four-race Pocono Top-10 streak coming to Pennsylvania this week, we have high expectations for Reddick and his Toyota team. The 23XI Racing youngster looks poised for another Top-10 run in The Great American Getaway 400. He has been consistent on the intermediate and larger ovals of late with ninth- and 13th-place finishes recently at Nashville and Michigan. Reddick also likes Pocono Raceway and he's finished runner-up in two of the last three races at the Tricky Triangle. He has increased his Top-10 rate to 57-percent with this recent success and lowered his average finish to a reasonable 13.6.        

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has just three-career Top-10 finishes in 12-career starts at the Tricky Triangle. However, the great news is that each of those performances have come in his last four starts in Pennsylvania. Wallace finished fifth-place in this event in 2021 and he finished a strong eighth-place in this event in 2022. The 23XI Racing veteran wasn't a major threat to win either of those starts, but the No. 23 Toyota team seemingly figured this place out. Wallace has nabbed 10th- and 11th-place finishes in his last two starts at Pocono Raceway and he's managed a good 9.6 average finish across his last five Pocono starts. He hasn't shown us a great deal on the big tracks this season, but recent outings have netted finishes of sixth- and fourth-place at Nashville and Michigan.

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs's poor season has seemed to turn the corner in recent weeks. He finished third-place at the big Michigan oval a couple weeks ago and a respectable 11th-place at Mexico City this past Sunday. The third at Michigan is particularly interesting as that track is a good comp for Pocono Raceway. Gibbs has shown some skill at this track as he grabbed a Top-5 finish in this event two seasons ago. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota would return last year and win the pole position and lead 21 laps. However, Gibbs would be taken out of contention late in that race with an engine failure. All the indicators seem to point towards a big performance for Gibbs in the Great American Getaway 400.  

Erik Jones – The veteran driver has reversed his slow start to the season in recent weeks. Jones has grabbed two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last six events. The Legacy Motor Club driver will ride that momentum into what has been a good track for him in recent years. Jones has eight Top 10's in 13-career starts (63-percent) and he's grabbed two of those in just his last three visits to the three-turn Pennsylvania oval. He finished 14th-place in this event one year ago and we really see that as the floor for this driver and team in the American Getaway 400. The 13.5 average finish and 89.3 driver rating at Pocono Raceway really speaks to Jones' abilities at Pocono.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Chris Buescher – Despite being a one-time Pocono winner earlier in his career, this oval is not one of Buescher's best. His two Top 10's in 15 starts works out to only a 13-percent hit rate and his 20.0 average finish is below what we consider fantasy worthy. Buescher has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last six Pocono Raceway starts and his average finish across this most recent span is a disappointing 22.2. The veteran driver of the No. 17 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford is coming to Pennsylvania on a two-race Top-10 streak this weekend. We believe that streak is very much in jeopardy in the Great American Getaway 400. 

Kyle Busch – Busch's four victories at Pocono since the 2017 season make him one of the more dominant performers at this track in its recent history. The Richard Childress Racing star has had his difficulties at the three-turn Pennsylvania oval since that last win (2021). Busch has registered finishes of 36th-, 21st- and 32nd-place in his last three trips to the Pocono Mountains. One of those was a disqualification due to a technical infraction. His once impressive Top-10 rate at this track has dipped to a less impressive 49-percent due to his recent struggles. The No. 8 Chevrolet team has just one Top 10 in their last eight races and are coming off a crash and DNF at Mexico City this past Sunday.  

Michael McDowell – Despite having a great race in Mexico City last week, we're calling for the McDowell fade in Pocono. The Spire Motorsports veteran has 22-career starts at the Tricky Triangle and only two Top-10 finishes to his credit (9-percent). That works out to an unimpressive 25.8 average finish for his career at Pocono Raceway. McDowell finished 24th-place in this event one year ago and that's probably a good expectation for Sunday afternoon. McDowell was a disappointing 30th-place on the big oval in Michigan a couple weeks ago, and that's not a good look heading into this weekend's Great American Getaway 400.  

Austin Cindric – Cindric has just three Cup Series starts at Pocono Raceway but the results have been unimpressive to this point. No Top-15 finishes to his credit and a lofty 24.0 average finish across that three-race span. The Penske Racing driver is in the middle of what we would term a challenging season. Despite a surprise win earlier in the campaign, Cindric has only collected three Top 10's in the first 16 races of the season. Of late he's in a six-race Top-10 drought and has slumped to 15th-place in the point standings as a result. The driver of the No. 2 Ford was a disappointing 31st-place at the big Michigan oval a couple weeks ago and that hangs like a cloud over any expectations for Pocono this weekend.