UFC Atlanta Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC heads to Atlanta for a card chock-full of heavy favorites. We'll break down each bout on the 13-fight slate to determine how to navigate and find profit. Our picks this week include a knockout artist still looking for solid ground at middleweight and a wrestler who will try to overwhelm a young, flashy opponent. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ange Loosa ($8,400)
Loosa's aggressiveness, pressure, and wrestling game make him a solid play against Rowe, who always seems willing to let his opponent control the center of the cage. One could be forgiven for taking a shot on the underdog in this spot, as Rowe will have significant advantages in height and reach, and Loosa will be susceptible to strikes from the clinch. At the end of the day, though, Rowe just isn't active enough (3.65 significant strikes landed per minute), and I can't count on him to deliver Loosa's first stoppage loss.
Ricky Simon ($8,700)
Simon's ownership levels should be at an all-time high after a late pullout from Charles Jourdain made him a (-500) favorite for his fight with replacement Cameron Smotherman. Rather than attempt a fade, I'd lean towards rostering Simon heavy to beat the field, as Smotherman stands flatfooted, which should allow the 32-year-old time to find his takedowns. "The Baby-Faced Killa" will have a three-inch height advantage here, but Simon's athleticism should allow him to get on the inside.
Raoni Barcelos ($8,500)
Barcelos turned back the clock in a win over prospect Payton Talbott in his last fight, putting on a grappling clinic as a massive betting underdog. I like him to back up that win here, as he shouldn't be overwhelmed by Garbrandt's speed and has always had crisp boxing to go along with his wrestling and BJJ prowess. While "No Love" does carry a takedown defense rate of 80 percent, you have to go back to 2016 to find the last bout he won against a credentialed wrestler, as he was most recently brought to the mat and submitted by Deiveson Figueiredo in 2024.
Cody Durden ($7,600)
Jose Ochoa looks like a solid prospect with power, but I worry about his experience level. "Kalzifer" has fought eight times as a professional but saw no action in 2022 and fought just once last year after two bouts in 2023. This seemed to show in his UFC debut, as he looked hesitant to pull the trigger in a loss to Lone'er Kavanagh. Durden will hit the gas from the opening bell and has shown toughness in the cage, having only been stopped by strikes once in 24 fights.
Oumar Sy ($9,400)
Sy is hard to stop when he gets rolling, and I expect his length and grappling to be far too much for Alonzo Menifield, who has had difficulty finding the range as the shorter man. While he is still live for a knockout, "Atomic" gets tentative when he can't find his openings, which should allow Sy to dictate terms.
Jamey-Lyn Horth ($9,400)
This seems like a cut-and-dry spot for Horth, who uses her long frame to force grappling exchanges. Vanessa Demopoulos has only stopped takedown attempts at a 25 percent clip in the UFC, and won't be able to touch her opponent without crashing the pocket. This should lead to the tie-ups which bring the fight to Horth's world.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Kris Moutinho OVER 16.5 Significant Strikes, and Cody Brundage UNDER 15.5 Significant Strikes
I fully expect Moutinho to hit the canvas at some point, but I like this total as a sneaky over thanks to the 33-year-old's toughness and Malcolm Wellmaker's ability to snipe with counter shots. This makes it likely that Moutinho will start the fight on the front foot, where he should find enough offense to clear the line.
Brundage will be at an eight-inch reach disadvantage against Mansur Abdul-Malik, to say nothing of the discrepancies in speed, agility, and striking. This should result in the 31-year-old frantically trying to close the distance. Abdul-Malik showed good takedown defense in his last fight against Nick Klein and will likely be able to end this one early.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Takedowns
Michael Chiesa UNDER 2.5 Takedowns, and Kamaru Usman UNDER 2.0 Takedowns
"Maverick" likes to hunt takedowns for as long as he is in the cage, but this has rarely been an effective strategy against Court McGee, who has not been grounded more than twice in a fight since 2017. I expect a lot of stalling against the cage as two strong wrestlers jockey for position, but it would hardly be surprising for McGee to throw in some offensive wrestling of his own.
Usman would have been an easy favorite to clear this line a few years ago, but inactivity and lingering knee issues make me wonder how much of a threat the former champion can pose to Joaquin Buckley, who is incredibly fast and strong with knockout power. "New Mansa's" body work should further discourage Usman from shooting, making it difficult to predict much grappling success.
UFC Bets to Consider
Rose Namajunas Wins via Decision (-150)
Namajunas is one of the best distance managers in the sport, which will come in handy when Miranda Maverick tries to find her takedown entries. "Fear The" has never been shy about throwing down when she has to, so I expect this to become a striking match once Maverick's initial attempts to bring the fight to the ground are unsuccessful. When this occurs, "Thug" should be able to carve Maverick up by sticking and moving.
Rodolfo Bellato Wins via KO/TKO (-125)
This is a rebooking of a fight that was set to take place in May prior to Bellato being diagnosed with herpes (yes, really). There isn't much more to add to my write-up from a few weeks ago, so I'll just reiterate that I've always had a soft spot for Paul Craig as someone who finds ways to win despite a limited skill set. However, he has been knocked out by no fewer than four big punchers in his UFC career. Bellato is far from a perfect fighter, but I doubt his Scottish opponent can exploit his lack of striking defense, and the Brazilian has defended all nine takedown attempts he has faced in the Octagon. All signs point to a quick knockout here.
Edmen Shahbazyan wins via KO/TKO (+148)
Shahbazyan's trouble with wrestlers has been well documented, but I can't rubber-stamp a fighter like Andre Petroski, who has shown himself to be fragile and stiff in the cage. Though he features powerful takedowns, Petroski can exhaust himself if a finish doesn't materialize, and every fighter who has beaten "The Golden Boy" has done so in the later rounds. This means Edmen can finish his opponent regardless of who starts fast.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for Atlanta this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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