This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
RBC Canadian Open Golf Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads north of the border for the annual RBC Canadian Open as the tune-up for next week's U.S. Open. The national open was established in 1904 and has been rotating various courses since Glen Abbey last hosted in 2018, with TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley hosting this year for the first time in the event's history. The 156-player field is headlined by Rory McIlroy (9-2 odds) and is strong for a non-signature event with eight of the top-25 players in the OWGR. Last year, longshot Robert MacIntyre (80-1 odds) captured his maiden Tour victory by one stroke over Ben Griffin.
Since we have a new venue, we don't have the typical data to draw from and will have to use our best estimate for the type of golfer that is likely to have success at TPC Toronto. A par-70 that will play roughly 7,400 yards, it's long considering there are only two par-5s. Six of the par-4s are over 480 yards and when you combine that with fairways that average 37 yards wide with minimal penalty for wayward drives, this venue should have a premium on distance over accuracy. With the weather forecast looking favorable, I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into a birdie-fest. Overall, I'm targeting longer hitters, good putters and those that rank well in birdie percentage, with less of an emphasis on around the green play.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday.
Current Form
These players, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined across their last 20 rounds:
- Rory McIlroy: 1.60
- Corey Conners: 1.25
- Emiliano Grillo: 1.23
- Thorbjorn Olesen: 1.15
- Henrik Norlander: 0.90
Targeting quality ball-strikers tends to be a good place to start at new courses, and I don't think TPC Toronto will be much different. McIlroy leads the field in that category by a significant margin, although he surprisingly struggled in that area at Quail Hollow a couple weeks ago. Nevertheless, McIlroy has always taken national open's seriously and a is a two-time winner of this event. Quite a bit farther down the odds board we find at Olesen at 50-1, and after failing to record a top-10 on Tour last year, he's already posted two such results in 2025. His long-game has played a big role in that, as he ranks in the top-30 in SG: Off-the-Tee, approach, tee to green and total. The former Ryder Cupper has traditionally played very well on the DP World Tour and looks like he may start transitioning that success to the PGA Tour.
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RBC Canadian Open Bets: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg (14-1)
It seems like people have soured a bit on Aberg, but he closed with the second lowest round at Muirfield Village on Sunday in which he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. I like him to keep the momentum going, and the expected course fits of distance and birdie makers should suit him well.
Keith Mitchell (40-1)
Mitchell continues to trend in the right direction and appears close to breaking his six-year winless drought. He's posted two top-10s at the Canadian Open in the past, so he's no stranger to success north of the border. Mitchell ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee this year.
Eric Cole (65-1)
Cole seemed to hit rock bottom in March after missing 4-of-5 cuts, but he's turned it around since then, notably posting a T5 at the Byron Nelson last month. Outside of driving he does everything else very well, and has gained at least a stroke per round on approach in three of his last five events.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Gary Woodland (5-1)
Coming off a top-10 hit with Tom Hoge last week, I'll start this section off with Woodland. He didn't qualify for last week's signature event but played well the week prior with a T11 at Colonial. His only weakness has been his around the green play, but I don't think that will be much of a factor at this potential birdie-fest.
Jesper Svensson (7-1)
If this turns into a driving and putting contest, then Svensson makes for a great target. He's eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, fourth in distance and 16th in birdie or better percentage. The downside is that he's struggled with his irons but that seems overly factored into these odds.
Patrick Fishburn (10-1)
Fishburn hasn't had a great year at 117th in the FedExCup Standings with 11 missed cuts already, but he does have a pair of top-10s. He has good length off the tee and capable of getting into contention on the occasional good putting week.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Mackenzie Hughes (-110) over Nick Taylor
A matchup between two Canadians, Hughes has three top-15s at the event since 2018 while Taylor only has one in 13 appearances (albeit a win in 2023). In general, Taylor tends to be more hit-or-miss than Hughes, making the latter the more appealing target in this type of wager. Hughes has also played well this spring, posting three top-10s over his last seven starts.
Johnny Keefer (-120) over Max Homa
Keefer received a sponsor's exemption which isn't much of a surprise considering his experience playing in the country on the PGA Tour Americas last year. He's leading the Korn Ferry Tour points list with a win and four top-5s. I like that momentum over Homa, who failed to get through U.S. Open qualifying Monday and only has one top-25 all year.
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