This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Once the elite wide receivers are off the board, fantasy managers face a critical decision: which breakout wideout can take the leap into the top tier? Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, and Drake London are all being drafted near the WR7 to WR9 range in 2025 fantasy football ADP, but each carries a different blend of volume potential, quarterback synergy, and injury risk.
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR7)
Brian Thomas delivered a strong rookie campaign with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his breakout truly began once Mac Jones took over at quarterback. Over his final six games, Thomas posted at least 76 receiving yards in each outing, racked up three 100-yard games, and averaged 10 to 14 targets per contest.
He showcased explosive after-the-catch ability (88th percentile), making plays regardless of route depth. But his connection with Trevor Lawrence was inconsistent; in 11 games with Lawrence, Thomas failed to clear 15 PPR points in eight matchups, including three under six points.
The Jaguars are reportedly building their offense around Thomas in 2025. If Lawrence can feed him the way Jones did, Thomas could return WR1 overall value. But that trust isn't a given, and early 2024 usage suggests the risk is real.
The bottom line: Thomas has excellent upside potential, but his fantasy success hinges on Lawrence. He's a volatile pick near WR7 and best suited for managers chasing upside over safety.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans (WR8)
Nico Collins opened 2024 red-hot, averaging 122 receiving yards
Once the elite wide receivers are off the board, fantasy managers face a critical decision: which breakout wideout can take the leap into the top tier? Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, and Drake London are all being drafted near the WR7 to WR9 range in 2025 fantasy football ADP, but each carries a different blend of volume potential, quarterback synergy, and injury risk.
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR7)
Brian Thomas delivered a strong rookie campaign with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his breakout truly began once Mac Jones took over at quarterback. Over his final six games, Thomas posted at least 76 receiving yards in each outing, racked up three 100-yard games, and averaged 10 to 14 targets per contest.
He showcased explosive after-the-catch ability (88th percentile), making plays regardless of route depth. But his connection with Trevor Lawrence was inconsistent; in 11 games with Lawrence, Thomas failed to clear 15 PPR points in eight matchups, including three under six points.
The Jaguars are reportedly building their offense around Thomas in 2025. If Lawrence can feed him the way Jones did, Thomas could return WR1 overall value. But that trust isn't a given, and early 2024 usage suggests the risk is real.
The bottom line: Thomas has excellent upside potential, but his fantasy success hinges on Lawrence. He's a volatile pick near WR7 and best suited for managers chasing upside over safety.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans (WR8)
Nico Collins opened 2024 red-hot, averaging 122 receiving yards and 7.5 catches per game through Week 4. A hamstring injury derailed his midseason, but he bounced back in the playoffs with two 100-yard performances.
Injuries remain the big concern. Collins has yet to play a full season and has missed 17 games across four years. While his per-game numbers are elite, 85 yards and 0.56 touchdowns since 2023, the inability to stay on the field drags down his fantasy reliability.
Even with added target competition in Houston, Collins remains the top perimeter weapon for C.J. Stroud. If he finally stays healthy, he could easily smash ADP.
The bottom line: Collins brings top-four WR per-game upside but carries significant durability concerns. At WR8, he's a boom-or-(injury) bust selection that best fits aggressive team builds.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (WR9)
Drake London found his rhythm late in 2024, closing with 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns on 100 catches. He dominated over his final six games, averaging 94 yards on 11.3 targets, and immediately clicked with rookie quarterback Michael Penix.
In the final three weeks with Penix, London averaged 117 yards and 0.67 touchdowns on 13 targets per game. He also ranked in the 90th percentile in team air yards share, reinforcing his alpha role in Atlanta's passing game.
But the early season production was inconsistent; London had just one 100-yard game through Week 16 and was held under six catches seven times. The volume spiked once Penix took over, and the gamble is that volume/production remain.
The bottom line: London has strong WR1 upside tied to his growing connection with Penix. He offers a great blend of role, draft pedigree and QB chemistry.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP WR Values
Each of these receivers has upside beyond their ADP, but their paths vary widely. Thomas is set to be the focal point of Jacksonville's offense, but his success depends on Lawrence. Collins has elite per-game production, but injuries make him a gamble. London showed WR1 form late with Penix, and his blend of floor, ceiling and improving QB rapport makes him my favorite pick in this tier.
Safest ceiling/floor combo: Drake London
Best if QB clicks: Brian Thomas
Most risk/reward: Nico Collins
For deeper insight into these fantasy football ADP battles, including other wide receivers with breakout potential, be sure to explore RotoWire's full library of fantasy football articles.
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