This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The Pacers are down to their proverbial last out, and they may have to try to stave off elimination with a limited-at-minimum Tyrese Haliburton. Indiana has a well-earned reputation as a never-say-die team, but the combination of an elite opponent and the possibility of not having its biggest star at full strength may be too much to overcome.
With only one matchup, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters comprised as follows:
MVP- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
Five Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate)
With salaries also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding value plays for some of the utility spots is undoubtedly key, as it enables you to roster a superstar in the MVP slot, where salaries for each player are 1.5x higher than if you were rostering them in a Utility spot.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, 6/18 @10:30 p.m. ET:
Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5) at Indiana Pacers (O/U: 221.5)
The Thunder's status as road favorites naturally isn't surprising, but oddsmakers are showing some restraint, especially given the possibility that Haliburton may not be at full strength. The two games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse thus far resulted in a nine-point Pacers victory and a seven-point Thunder win, so the number is reasonable from that perspective and will obviously expand further if Haliburton is ruled out.
The projected total is right in line with how the first five games of the series have unfolded, as those contests have finished with 221, 230, 223, 215 and 229 points. As with the spread, however, a Haliburton absence, were it to be confirmed well ahead of tip-off, would likely lead to some movement.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Tyrese Haliburton, IND (calf): QUESTIONABLE
Haliburton was able to go through a light practice Wednesday, but it appears he could headed for a game-time decision Thursday. If he's ultimately unable to suit up, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard could be direct beneficiaries, while the usage rate of the likes of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner could especially see a boost.
Elite Players
The players with the two highest MVP salaries on Thursday's slate are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($26,100) and Tyrese Haliburton ($18,900).
Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his second Finals game with more than 60 standard FD points, having recorded 63.4 in Game 5. With the series on the line Thursday, SGA could be especially aggressive from buzzer to buzzer.
Haliburton's status will naturally be the biggest story leading up to tipoff, and if he's announced as available, he'll be looking to bounce back from a series-low 18.4 standard FD points in Game 5. The star point guard had at least 31.9 FD points in the first four games, and if he's healthy enough to suit up in this potential elimination scenario, a significant bounce-back effort is very much within the range of outcomes.
Expected Chalk
With only one matchup, the likes of Jalen Williams ($12,400), Pascal Siakam ($11,800) and Chet Holmgren ($9,200) should also be very popular.
Williams would be very popular under any scenario, but especially after his 40-point outburst in Game 5 that saw him shoot 50.4 percent and net 55.2 FD points.
Siakam will also be highly rostered under any circumstance after eclipsing 50 FD points for the second straight Finals game Monday, but even more so if Haliburton is declared out.
Holmgren has eclipsed 31 FD points in three straight games and, therefore, comes off as a very reliable mid-level option at his salary.
Key Values
The following players make for strong candidates for the Utility spots:
Myles Turner, IND ($5,600)
Turner's salary has gone down yet again, even after a solid 24.7 FD-point showing in Game 5. The versatile big man boosted his rebounds back up to six – his best tally since Game 1 – and he managed to score 13 actual points despite taking just five shots. Turner's 6-for-7 showing from the free-throw line helped boost his overall production, and at his salary and especially if Haliburton is out or limited in any way, the big man could deliver another 20-plus FD-point tally that would justify his rostering at $5.6K.
Alex Caruso, OKC ($5,400)
Caruso parlayed another successful defensive effort in Game 5 into his sixth consecutive postseason showing of more than 20 FD points, netting 21.4 in 29 minutes. The playing time was also encouraging, but it's also important to note that Caruso went just 1-for-8 from the field on his way to tying his second-lowest scoring total of the postseason (two points). Nevertheless, he'd shot 50.0 percent, including 45.5 percent from behind the arc, over the prior eight contests dating back to Game 4 of the semifinal-round series against the Nuggets, and it's therefore very conceivable he could be back in the 25-to-30 FD-point range with just a bit sharper effort Thursday.
Obi Toppin, IND ($3,600)
Toppin has scored over 20 FD points in three straight games and in four of the first five Finals contests overall, averaging 11.4 points (47.9 percent shooting), 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists across 24.6 minutes in the entirety of that span. Toppin has also been encouragingly aggressive while putting up at least five attempts from deep on four occasions against OKC as well, and his well-rounded efforts continue to earn him plenty of minutes off the bench. Given Thursday's stakes, the possibility of a Haliburton absence and Toppin's still miniscule salary, he's a clear-cut salary-saving tournament option.
ALSO CONSIDER: Andrew Nembhard, IND ($4,000); Aaron Nesmith, IND ($3,200)
