This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
UTSA vs UCLA: High-Stakes Saturday Super Regional Betting Preview
Louisville came home in a rocking chair winner for the Friday slate. It was a nice little appetizer to what's going to be an electric weekend. Unfortunately, innings props have been tough to come by at the leading sportsbooks. I was waiting all day for an FSU F5 line with Jamie Arnold on the bump, but haven't gotten it yet. Not sure if we will at all. Sounds like somebody needs a stern talking to. If you get that line, play it, but in the meantime, I've cooked up another play for tonight.
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Saturday Super Regional Betting Analysis: UTSA vs UCLA
UTSA (+124) @ UCLA (-160)
This is a tough series to break down. UCLA has a solid roster with some dudes, but overall I've had questions on them all season. UTSA is that relentless mid-major that's played well this year, but are they able to repeat the formula from last week in Austin? Looks like Zach Royse will battle UCLA's Michael Barnett in this critical game one.
The Roadrunners have a pretty strong pitching rotation, though the numbers don't necessarily support that. As a matter of fact, you can make the case UCLA's is in pretty much the same boat. Royse is definitely better than that 5.16 ERA he's sporting (3.92 SIERA). The 80 K/31 BB ratio in 89 IP isn't awful, but the 15 homers he's allowed has been his major bugaboo, which has contributed to a lot of the damage.
It won't be an overwhelmingly powerful UCLA offense that Royse will see (78 homers), but there's definitely some boppers in this joint. The three boppers are consequently their best three hitters and main points of emphasis I've discussed in every preview of Bruins Baseball. AJ Salgado (12 HR) and Mulivai Levu (12 HR) have both been key contributors, but the big daddy has been Roch Cholowsky (23 HR) acting as the Panama Canal where everything flows through him.
If you want to silence this offense, shutting down the 2026 1.1 candidate in Cholowsky is priority number one. If you do that, you have a chance. Royse will need to have a repeat effort of last week's outing vs. K-State (5.1 IP, 1 ER). But if he starts giving up Jimmy Jacks, that's where things go sideways for him.
Michael Barnett has been the de facto ace for UCLA, as he's pitched to a 4.18 ERA, 70 K/18 BB ratio in 75.1 IP. He was okay against Fresno St last week (4.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER), but his three starts prior were very nice. All were five-six innings and two earned or less, though none were against anything close to a competent offense.
Barnett will see an all-gas-no-brakes lineup in UTSA that is a big-hitting team. The .317 average comes with seven key players carrying an average of .300 or better. Mason Lytle is their all-around best offensive weapon (.369 avg, 9 HR, 17 SB), but there's several other players that can take over the ball game. Barnett's not a big strikeout guy, and he gives up a lot of hits (89 in 75.1 IP), which bodes well for UTSA. I definitely think there's a chance this lineup can plate some runs in this one.
The optimal matchup for UTSA is on Sunday with Conor Myles throwing against likely Landon Stump or Ian May. But I have UTSA stealing this region, so it's worth it to play them today and tomorrow.
Pick: UTSA ML +124 (FD)
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