This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for July 1: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.05 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 76-82-1 (-10.41 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat as always in outdoor parks for totals.
Road Favorites - Yankees -160 at Blue Jays, Astros -160 at Rockies, Tigers -150 at Nationals
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dodgers -325 vs White Sox, Braves -190 vs Angels, Cubs -180 vs Guardians
Totals - Astros/Rockies 11.0-11.5, Red Sox/Reds 9.5-10.0, Braves/Angels 9.5, Nationals/Tigers 9.5
Orioles/Rangers 7.0-7.5, Pirates/Cardinals 7.5, Marlins/Twins 7.5
MLB Line Movement
Padres -15, Twins -21, Braves -35, Cubs -16
7 games have totals that have increased 0.5 runs
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Insights
One of the worst pitching matchups on the slate in a very hitter-friendly ballpark has Hayden Birdsong against Zac Gallen. There was a time when taking Gallen at home was automatic, but he has not been the same pitcher since July 2024 and you have to wonder if there is an injury looming.
Hayden Birdsong has looked promising at times, but he has allowed 4 homeruns in his last 3 starts, along with a 7.71 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 5.8 BB/9. Gallen has been destroyed at home and has also been giving up a ton of hard contact with a 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9.
Two pitchers that give up a ton of hard contact and allow a lot of base runners put us in position to get OVER 9.5 runs and I would even look at the F5 OVER.
TRENDS
- The OVER is 7-3 in the Dbacks' last 10 home games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games against San Francisco.
MLB Best Bets: Giants/Dbacks OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
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San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
The best pitching matchup on the board today with Nick Pivetta against Cristopher Sanchez has me going to a system play, which is a play ON the F5 UNDER when you have two strong starting pitchers. Add in the nuggets below that have both teams trending UNDER and this series has been trending on the low side as well.
Pivetta is coming off a gem, going 7 innings and striking out 10 against the Nationals. Sanchez has only allowed 1 homerun in his last 7 starts.
The Padres bullpen is solid, but the Phillies has been a liability which has me on the F5 instead of the full game.
TRENDS
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games against San Diego.
MLB Best Bets: Padres/Phillies F5 UNDER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
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Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
There are three things I look for in each baseball slate - the best starting pitcher matchup for an UNDER, the worst starting pitcher matchup for an OVER, and the biggest starting pitcher mismatch for a moneyline or run line play.
In this case, we get a serious mismatch with Jacob deGrom against Brandon Young. The game is in Texas and while the Rangers offense has struggled most of the year, deGrom has been lights out.
The Rangers are 11-5 SU in deGrom's 16 starts and 7-2 in his 9 home starts.
MLB Best Bets: Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Giants/Dbacks OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
- Padres/Phillies F5 UNDER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125)
