This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Super Regionals: Duke vs Murray State
The Super Regionals are down to two teams fighting for one spot in the College World Series. Seven of the eight spots for the Omaha invitational have been decided. Having a hard time wrapping my head around the transgressions of the 2025 season, as it appears we have that "once a decade" year where the most unlikely/unimaginable crap happens.
The entries thus far are Coastal Carolina, Arizona, Oregon State, Arkansas, LSU, UCLA, and Louisville. I guarantee you nobody in the universe had even half of this messy concoction in the field.
The only elimination game that made it to Monday is between Duke and Murray State, so let's see the last piece of the puzzle.
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Monday Super Regional Bet
Murray State (+210) @ Duke (-280) | Total: 16.5
My approach to this series came true for us. Grab Murray State in both Game 1 and Game 2 at a price between +220 and +300 because they just have to win one to get a profit. The 4-seed Racers find themselves ONE WIN AWAY from the College World Series. They are once again a big underdog at Duke, but can they seize the moment?
I honestly don't know who either team is throwing, so I'll use my best guess work. Kane Elmy has a decent chance of either starting or getting some innings on Monday as he his yet to throw this weekend. It's a 4.33 ERA and brutal 25 K/21 BB ratio in 54 innings for the senior. His short stint last week against Ole Miss in the regionals wasn't too impressive (2.1 IP, 4 ER). Either way, the pitching options for Murray State are flirting with disaster. Somebody will really have to step up for them, as they have run low with a staff that wasn't very deep to begin with.
Duke's Powerful Offense: Key Players and Strategies
The Duke offense has been primarily run the next Van Wilder in Sixth-year senior, Ben Miller (.321 avg/21 HR). While Miller is the guy for this team, they also have some other key contributors like AJ Gracia (.295 avg/15 HR) who has juice to go top five in the 2026 draft. A handful of other Blue Devils have added to the 112 total homer output for the group, giving them a legit thump in the lineup. If any of Murray State's pitchers start tossing BP, it may turn into a home run derby at Jack Coombs Field.
The Blue Devils have adopted the all-hands-on-deck mindset as well as anyone. In Sunday's Game 2, Chris Pollard deployed eight different arms. We've seen him do that plenty of times throughout the years. It seems like James Tallon is a good look to start this one, though. Or at least see how long they'll push him depending on game flow. Tallon has a 3.93 ERA (48 K/16 BB ratio in 34.1 innings). Chances are he goes somewhere between two-three innings. Henry Zatkowski (4.85 ERA) and their best arm in Reid Easterly (2.92 ERA) figure to get some innings as well.
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Murray State lineup
The Racers' lineup will have to shoulder the burden on Monday like they did Sunday, scoring 19 runs. We've seen this offense have to put up crooked numbers to have a chance at winning. In six tournament games, Murray State has scored at least nine runs four times, which they all won. The two that were under nine, they lost. It's clear this team will have to score AT LEAST 9 or 10 runs to have an opportunity. They have four players with double-digit homers and a handful with a .300 average or better. The clutch hitting will need to be there for them throughout the whole game.
I gave out Murray State to win this series at +340, so it doesn't make sense to take their ML today with that riding. I like to stick with what I have and not jump ship, though I do think Duke has a huge advantage today. There's no real way to bet Duke without laying almost -300.
The over 16.5 is worth a look, as the Duke team total over will be as well. The team total isn't out yet, but I would say it's probably going to be 9.5 or 10.5, and while that's high, I think they're motivated to score today.
Pick: Over 16.5 -110 (FD)
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