Mound Musings: Are You Buying?

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there has been even more (than usual) erratic pitching results. Some pitchers have enjoyed success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy targets. Even good teams with the very best pitching are sometimes shaking their heads. Even with good beginnings, many arms won't post long term value as the hitters get in sync and get in a hitting groove. However, some pitchers will actually dominate. They are angling on having stellar years, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have seriously impressed me with both solid numbers, and future potential at this early point in the season. This is a mix of young and old, kids and veterans, trying to convince me they are fantasy stars. Every year a handful of pitchers break through with a first career year, and early returns suggest these might be some of the more likely.

You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:

Paul Skenes (Pirates) – I've liked just about everything about Skenes since the first time I saw him pitch at LSU. He quickly made it to the top of my kids list, and I was preparing for a big splash. He spent all of 35 innings in the minors in 2023 so we didn't have to be very patient. You rarely see me use this word, but I'm using it now. Skenes is generational. I think the last time I used that label I was referring to Stephen Strasburg. At his best, Skenes has a full repertoire of plus-plus offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His command was somewhat suspect, but it's improving. He works up and down in the zone, and everything moves. I can almost promise a few more growing pains, and being with the horrid Pirates is no help, but he's close to taking another step forward. Whatever he costs, pay the price. He can carry a fantasy team.

Kodai Senga (Mets) – Senga is one of those guys who occasionally pulls the wool over my eyes. When he first arrived, he looked okay, but I wondered about all the hoopla. The Mets gave him the big bucks. Then I watched him again and he looked better. Rinse and repeat. A distinct pattern quickly developed. Every time he stepped on the mound, he looked better. That's actually fairly rare. He has a very good repertoire with a 96-mph fastball, but that's not his success story. It's that mesmerizing fork ball. The other pitches just set that up. His command is improving, but even more so, he is generating even more movement on his pitches, and his mound demeanor – a direct offshoot of his confidence – is off the charts. I hesitate to label his ceiling, because I'm not sure he won't just surpass it and keep going.

Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – His early days – for example a 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 2021 – didn't necessarily suggest impending stardom, but he's been even better every year since, and it looks like more good days are in his future. I liked what I initially saw in him, but he has developed beyond what I thought was his probable ceiling. He's undergone a bit of a transition recently – probably brought on by some 2022 health issues. He has cut way back on his slider usage, and replaced it with more four-seamers and change-ups. That's the secret. He has an incredibly good change-up, and he misses a lot of bats with it. So now you have a lefty who can touch triple digits with a moving fastball, can dazzle opponents with a spicy change-up, can mix in a nice slider and can throw them all for strikes. His 1.99 ERA is a big reason the Tigers have the best record in MLB.

Max Fried (Yankees) – How would you feel if the front office said, "Hey, no worries, we just need you to step in for this injured guy...ummm Gerrit Cole." No pressure; Cole is just a pure ace, Cy Young award winner. The Yankees signed Fried to a long-term deal and he has done nothing but impress. He's 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 90 strikeouts over 95 innings. A rather pedestrian strikeout total yes, but Fried is known for his ability to keep the ball in the infield and has never been a huge whiff guy. That always makes me nervous. Ground-ball pitchers are reliant on their teammates to provide good defense, and especially in today's game, that's not guaranteed. That said, the Yankees are taking pretty good care of him. Some pitchers come to the Bronx and find it hard to perform, but Fried looks like he was made to wear pinstripes.

Andrew Abbott (Reds) – These next couple of guys are perhaps just a bit more speculative. I'm not quite ready to tag them with an "elite" endorsement, at least not yet, but they have done some things to warrant a lot of attention. Abbott suffered a rotator cuff strain late last season and actually started 2025 on the IL. He kept tossing discreet little hints he could be a solid starter, but quite honestly, the hints didn't suggest this. Abbott is a fly-ball pitcher pitching his home games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and with his modest stuff, that's a dangerous formula. But, he's done it before to some extent. This year he's doing it again. My biggest concern is a significant decrease in strikeouts. I'm monitoring that.

Robbie Ray (Giants) – Here's one I have been touting for a long time. Ray has made an impression with some pretty flashy performances, but he has also suffered through a series of injuries, which makes it harder to get and stay in sync. He hit a peak in 2021, which netted him a Cy Young award. He slipped a bit in 2022, then blew out his hamstring, and the next year his elbow required Tommy John surgery wiping out most of 2023 and 2024. He appears to be back, to say the least. He looks like a power pitcher, but, with a fastball that sits 92 to 94, he's really not. He relies heavily on his fastball/slider combo with an occasional knuckle curve, and he entices hitters to chase, which has led to a very handy strikeout rate. The addition of Rafael Devers should boost run support, but if they stick him in the field, it hurts. If he could just stay healthy.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• When the Brewers told Aaron Civale he would be moving to the bullpen, he asked to be traded. No doubt thinking about future paychecks, he was dealt to the White Sox. He made his first start for them earlier this week, taking a loss against the Rangers. Moving to Chicago is unlikely to help his fantasy value.
• After a lackluster 0-5 start, Atlanta welcomed back the real Spencer Strider. He tossed six shutout innings allowing just three hits with one walk while striking out 13. Okay, it was against the hapless Rockies, but his velocity was up, everything was moving, and he was on the edges of the strike zone all day.
• His overall numbers this year were nothing special (4.22 ERA and 1.49 WHIP), but Detroit's Jackson Jobe threw all kinds of hints that better was on the way. Unfortunately, his elbow put things on hold. He will undergo Tommy John surgery, costing him the rest of this season, and most or all of next year, too.
• Wow. Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski is certainly opening eyes. He's 6'7" with extension, so it looks like he's standing on home plate when he releases the ball. His fastball touches 102 mph while his slider sits at 96 mph. If, and it's a big if, he can consistently throw strikes, he has genuine elite upside.
• A couple months into the season, and the Rays' Ryan Pepiot might have deserved to be on the above list. After 15 starts he is just 4-6 but with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, and everything is trending positive. He has loads of potential and a completely filthy change-up to lead the way.
• We've been waiting for the Dodgers Shohei Ohtani to return to the mound, and it finally happened earlier this week. He missed (pitching) almost two years after Tommy John surgery. As planned, he pitched just one inning, needing 28 pitches. The velocity was on point; the command was spotty. Well done.

Endgame Odyssey:

The disappointing Braves appear to be adjusting their bullpen roles. Raisel Iglesias looks to be assuming a set-up role while right-hander Pierce Johnson and southpaw Dylan Lee mighty share the closing duties. In a week highlighted by comeback stories, Baltimore's Felix Bautista touched triple digits and recorded saves on back-to-back days for the first time since 2023. The Phillies may be losing confidence in closer Jordan Romano. They bypassed Romano and instead turned to Matt Strahm and then Orion Kerkering who shut down Toronto and Miami. Either of the pair could serve as the primary closer if needed. The Tigers have been on a roll this year, and Will Vest locking in as their closer has been a big part of that. He suffered a finger injury but got good news when he was allowed to return to the mound two days later. A.J. Puk has been out since mid-April, and things aren't looking any better for Arizona's closer. His rehab has been put on hold with more elbow soreness.

Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!

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