MLB's Unluckiest Hitters Bound for Positive Regression

Now that we're in June, you have a relatively strong idea of where your fantasy baseball team stands. For those of you in that middle or even lower tier in the standings, you're likely looking for some moves that will kick your squad into overdrive to position yourself for a nice second-half run.

A little over a month ago, I touched on some of the unluckiest hitters in the MLB this season that are bound for a breakout. The numbers may not tell the whole story though as we know in baseball, the ball doesn't always bounce your way. Some of the hitters on that piece still remain in the depths of misfortune. 

The formula is calculated by Baseball Savant and is translated via XBA minus BA, XSlug% minus Slug%, and XWOBA% minus WOBA%.

Let's see which players are either worth a pickup in your daily MLB lineups or deserve more patience for their inevitable breakout.

Unluckiest Hitters of the 2025 MLB Season

Juan Soto, New York Mets

Clearly, Juan Soto is a top player in MLB. You drafted him as an early-to-mid first rounder, so he's not a guy you'll see on your waiver wire. However, you might be a manager fed up with his lack of production, or you're looking to see if you can get a buy-low spot on the superstar. The New York Met is hitting just .233 with a .799 OPS, 11 homers and 30 RBIs as of June 3.

A lot of people expected Soto's power numbers to take a dip after he hit 41 bops in that little whiffle ballpark in the Bronx last year, now that he plays half his games Citi Field. We're seeing Soto have a 16.0 K rate, which would be the lowest since 2022. His 54.7% hard hit rate is also trending as the third best of his career. The .301 expected batting average would be his fourth-career highest and the expected slug of .589 is third best.

In essence, he's still hitting the ball hard and providing good enough advanced metrics to suggest he will get back to having pitchers fear for their lives. Based on the hitter he is, you would expect the average to ultimately settle in the .280 neighborhood, because his career average is .282 through seven-plus seasons. He's ranked among the unluckiest hitters in the MLB, so if somebody is willing and dumb enough to deal Soto, it's a good time to buy.

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

I'm old enough to remember that 2025 Opening Day performance from the former Golden Spikes winner where he went 3-for-5 with two taters. I think it's fair to say considering the expectations coming into the MLB, Adley has been disappointing thus far. Batting just .255 with 57 homers since his debut, most people thought this was the next big thing. Not just an elite hitting catcher, but future superstar.

His .263 XBA through June 3 shows a sizeable gap from his current .214 average, as does his .351 XWOBA (2nd best of career). The XSlug% of .452 is also second best. So a lot of his expected numbers soar past his actual ones. The 40.3 hard hit % and 8.4 barrel % also rank as his best. Most advanced metrics are telling us the kid is playing a lot better than the bottom line and that big breakout season could be nearing.

He's hitting the ball hard and demonstrating strong underlying metrics, but it hasn't resulted in much yet. That not only makes Rutschman one of the top 10 unluckiest players this season, but an awesome buy low candidate.

Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

The MLB deep-divers that really get into the weeds of the sport know Bryan Reynolds has been one of the most underappreciated players in the past five years. A career .273 average, .811 OPS and 129 homers give us the epitome of a dude that's always a solid bet in fantasy and real life baseball. He has had 24 or more homers in each of the past four years for a Pirates offense that has been utterly horrendous.

In 2025, his .234 average, 7 bops, and .675 OPS is definitely not what we're accustomed to seeing, but there's reason to believe things should be changing. The .290 BABIP is strong, along with the .369 XWOBA that ranks as second best of his career currently. The strikeouts have always been a part of his game, but his current 25.2 K rate (career worst) is a tad high, so he'll need to trim that up a bit.

The 47.3% hard hit rate and 12.4 barrel rate rank as career highs, along with his average exit velocity (91.1 mph). We know Reynolds is hitting and squaring up the ball as well as he ever has, so it's clear the stroke of misfortune should regress back to the mean as he sits as one of the 10 unluckiest hitters. Even in an awful Pittsburgh lineup, Reynolds should end up with close to 24 HRs again. And you never know: If the team deals him to a contender, that could give him even better production.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

The legend of Salvy Perez will never be forgotten in K.C. baseball lore, as he helped them capture the 2015 World Series trophy. In fact, he's the only player from that team remaining on the Royals. It's been a Hall of Fame caliber career from Perez (277 HR, 943 RBIs), especially as a backstop. He had a career year in 2021 with 48 bombs and 121 RBIs, but we knew it was unlikely he would ever come close to that again. But, he has been a strong contributor with 23 to 27 homers the past three ful seasons. So why is the 35-year-old catcher off to a sluggish start in 2025? Is age finally catching up to him?

Truthfully, his .229 average, .267 OBP and four homers make him virtually unplayable right now from a fantasy or MLB betting props perspective. Even at the most-shallow offensive position in the game. But maybe we're judging a book by its cover. Salvy's .278 BABIP isn't off the charts, but it's respectable enough to the point where we know the 50-point differential clearly suggests he's been one of the unluckiest hitters in 2025. That provides us with a .287 expected batting average. His 12.7% barrel rate would rank as the third best of his career (16.3% was in that 2021 season), while a 46.2% hard hit rate is the fifth highest of his career and best since 2022.

My incubator guy, Jac Caglianone, is finally getting the callup to the Royals lineup (thank heavens), which should provide a lot more juice for the rest of the offense. Perez can still be a good fantasy contributor, especially considering the shallow position he plays.