This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: July 10th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 21-23-1, -3.21 units
We have just a few games left until the All-Star break, let's try to head out with a couple winners from today's full slate!
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Pirates at Royals, Kris Bubic Over 6.5 K's +120 (DraftKings)
Kris Bubic started the season on an absolute tear for the Royals. On June 1st, the lefty had a 1.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 12 starts, with an excellent 19.4% K-BB%. So what do you do if you're the Kansas City Royals and you're sitting on a budding ace? You have him skip a start, of course. Look, I get it to some extent. Bubic came out of the gate with these kind of numbers in 2023, then went down with a torn UCL after 3 starts. He returned as a bullpen arm midway through last season and was just a lights-out weapon for a surprise Royals playoff team, 32% K%, 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. But he only threw 35 IP total, counting the postseason. So yes, he's not going 200 innings this season. But just taking a guy on an absolute roll and messing with his routine and rhythm seems like the worst possible idea.
Anyways, you know where this is going. He returned to the rotation on June 11th with an absolute clunker, 5 ER, 6 hits and 5 BB's in 4.1 IP vs. the Yankees. And all in all, he's just not quite the ace of earlier in the season. He has a 4.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last 5 starts, with just a 22.6% K%.
So why back his K prop here? Well, he's still striking out about 1 per IP and he's coming off his best start since his halt; 7 IP, 3 ER and 6 K's on the road against a tough Diamondbacks lineup. And he gets a great matchup here. The Pirates sport a league worst 68 wRC+ vs. lefties, with a 27.1% K% that's topped only by the Angels. Their best hitter, Oneil Cruz, may not start. Let's hope he does, though, as he has a 38.9% K% vs. southpaws. Bryan Reynolds probably will play and he's at 34%. I like Bubic to roll here and also to go relatively deep in the game as it's his last start ahead of the All Star game.
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Guardians at Astros Brandon Walter over 4.5 Ks +100 (DraftKings)
I know everyone likes to hate on the Astros, but let's give some credit where credit is due. They lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and have Yordan Alvarez on endless IL with a hand injury. So they need to win now with pitching and defense. Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia make for one of the better rotations in MLB. One problem though; all are on the IL. The Astros just somehow keep churning out arms. Enter a handful of guys I had frankly never heard of until this year, including today's starter, Brandon Walter.
The 28-year-old non-prospect had just 23 major league innings to his credit before this season, and they were mediocre ones for the Red Sox in 2023. The Astros unlocked something in him as he pitched to a 2.08 ERA in 47 minor league innings before his callup.
In 6 starts with Houston, he has a 4.15 ERA that sounds meh, but his metrics suggest he's much better than that. He has a microscopic 1.4% BB% to pair with a league-average 22.8% K%. His 51.4% GB% is 85th percentile as per Statcast. The ERA estimators love his work as he has a 3.19 xERA and 2.98 SIERA.
He's not a massive K guy, but the prop does not set a high bar here. Walter only struck out 3 in his last start, but he has at least 5 in all of his other 5 starts. Plus he's made it though at least 5 innings every time. The Guardians are not a huge K team, though their 24.2% K% vs. lefties is 9th highest in MLB.
MLB Best Bets
- Kris Bubic Over 6.5 K's +120 (DraftKings)
- Brandon Walter over 4.5 Ks +100 (DraftKings)
