This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 26th Best Bets & Predictions
With plenty of day baseball on this Thursday, we're going to focus on the lone evening contest at Citi Field in Queens. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets wrap up a four-game series on Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
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Braves vs Mets Props
The Braves (37-42) and Mets (47-34) wrap up this key divisional series Thursday, and New York found that the sixth time was a charm on Wednesday. Atlanta had won the first five meetings of the season by a combined score of 27-10, and it had six straight wins in the series overall since Sept. 30, 2024.
On Thursday, RHP Grant Holmes (4-6, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) takes on RHP Griffin Canning (7-3, 3.91 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). It's actually a pretty good pitching matchup despite the poor record for Holmes, and the mediocre WHIP for Canning.
Holmes' problems have started on the road, where he has a 4.58 ERA with eight homers allowed. However, teams are still hitting just .194 against him in road games, and he has a still respectable 1.27 WHIP.
Canning has registered a 5-1 record with a 2.89 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven road starts, but he has an unseemly 4.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 36 1/3 IP in eight outings at Citi Field. That's a concern, at least for potential side bettors and those interested in pursuing the Under.
The good news is that the sweltering temperatures in the New York City area will be more manageable in the low 70's today. Intense heat creates an environment where the ball travels further. In addition, there is a stiff wind at 10-13 mph blowing in front right-center field into the face of the batters, helping to knock down those potential exit velocities even more.
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It's risky business to back either of these starting pitchers, as both have their flaws. However, Canning has really struggled at home. Despite his strong overall record, he is a concern. We'll back the Kenny Powers lookalike Holmes, especially since the Braves have dominated this series this season. As short 'dogs, they're the slightly better value.
In addition, despite their shaky splits, which initially suggest an Over result, the temperature and winds should aid both pitchers rather substantially. The total opened at a flat 9, but it's at 8.5 across the board now, which is still a decent play.
Delving into the player props, we find that neither pitcher has a very lengthy history against the other team. However, there is one matchup with a pretty substantial history. Canning has faced Atlanta's Matt Olson 18 times, with the first baseman collecting just four hits (.222), while swatting two homers. However, he also has seven strikeouts. At home, Canning has a solid 8.4 K/9 ratio, and he is worth a roll of the dice to exceed his strikeout projections. However, let's also take a shot on Olson to crack a homer, with the chance to triple up in the process.
MLB Best Bets
- Braves ML (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 8.5 Total Runs (+100 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Griffin Canning - Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Matt Olson - To Hit a Home Run (+320 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
