This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I had another 2-2 article last week, and it appears that some negative regression is starting to take effect just before the All-Star break. After an unbelievable start, I'm now 35-16-2 in my first season at PrizePicks. I would have been ecstatic to have that record at the beginning of the season, and it motivates me to have a winning week before the break. We'll be back in two weeks for my next PrizePicks piece, so enjoy the All-Star festivities!
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Brayan Bello, BOS vs. COL: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Bello has been a disappointment in Boston throughout most of his career, but it appears he's finally putting it all together. The righty has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of 13 starts, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across his last eight outings. Most importantly, Bello has completed at least six innings in five straight starts, throwing at least 103 pitches in three of those!
If Bello is allowed to throw 100 pitches in a home start against Colorado, he could complete 21 outs or more! We say that because this is the worst offense in baseball, with the Rockies ranked 29th or 30th in OBP, K rate and xwOBA. Those numbers drop even further outside of Coors Field, and we'd back Bello in every type of DFS contest out there.
Seth Lugo, KC vs. PIT: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
To say the Pirates are pitiful would be a drastic understatement. This was one of the worst offenses in baseball before their weekend series in Seattle, scoring zero runs across three games. That's the definition of struggling, with Pittsburgh ranked 27th in K rate, 28th in runs scored and 29th in wOBA.
All of that is very problematic against a pitcher like Lugo. This veteran has allowed just three total runs across his last five starts, sporting a 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 rate in that span. He's also recorded at least seven strikeouts in four straight fixtures while allowing no runs across his last two home starts. Lugo is a safe bet to clear any of his props, but this one appears to be the best value.
Nathan Eovaldi, TEX at LAA: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
It feels cheap to exploit these terrible offenses, but that's what we need to do to be successful on PrizePicks. The Angels have been better recently, but they still rank 22nd in wOBA, 27th in OBP and dead-last in K rate. That strikeout stuff is the most impactful variable here, with Angels hitters striking out over 26 percent of the time! In his last four starts against the Angels over the last three years, Eovaldi has allowed three runs across 28 innings while striking out 24 batters.
A quality pitcher only needs to complete five innings to achieve this prop at that K rate, and Eovaldi has been more than that. Eovaldi has been exceptional, establishing a 1.75 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 rate this season. That's 14 starts of phenomenal pitching, and the only real concern is that Eovaldi is still building up his pitch count after returning from a month-long absence due to triceps fatigue in late June. The strikeout total is lower than it should be because of that, but this righty should be ready for 90-plus pitches after reaching five innings and 72 pitches in his most recent start.
Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. COL: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Kyle Freeland)
We've been using players against the Rockies all season, and it's easy to understand why when looking at their averages. Not only do they have one of the worst offenses, but their pitching staff is even worse. Colorado ranks last in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA this season. Kyle Freeland hasn't done anything to help those atrocious averages, accruing a 5.49 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. That might look inflated, but Freeland has only posted a WHIP below 1.40 once throughout his nine-year career.
We also like Trevor Story and Rob Refsnyder with the platoon advantage against Freeland, but Gonzalez is our best bet to go off. This utility man has been batting second against lefties recently, registering a .323 AVG and .888 OPS in a breakout campaign. His splits are even more stupendous, amassing a .393 AVG, .449 OBP and 1.138 OPS against lefties and a .348 AVG and .907 OPS at home this year. Gonzalez has also cleared this number in six straight starts, generating a .345 AVG and 1.037 OPS across his last 18 outings.
