This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 25th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 18-21-1, -4.18 units
The season is just about at the halfway point and I'm in kind of a meh run here, so let's try something different. Our friends at VSiN.com have a couple new toys out for subscribers, and they include a Strikeout Props analyser and a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) analyser. How about we road test a few of these? All odds are from DraftKings.
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Phillies at Astros: Colton Gordon Over 4.5 Strikeouts +120
The Astros battered rotation has lost Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski since the beginning of the season. Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022, got a bit hot, then dropped an anvil on his foot in the weight room (something like that) and is now back on the IL. But to the dismay of all the Astro haters out there, this team just keeps developing serviceable starters to plug in and play. Enter Colton Gordon, a 26 year old rookie. He has not exactly set the world on fire with his 91.3 MPH fastball, as he has a 4.54 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his 7 starts. The ERA estimators say he's pitching better than that however as he has a 3.53 xERA and 3.60 SIERA. His best skill is not walking anyone as he has just a 3.2% BB%.
Gordon has gone at least 5 IP in all but his first start, and allowed 3 earned runs or less all but once. VSiN projects him at 5.27 K's, which sounds about right. He has a fairly pedestrian 22.1% K%, while the Phillies carry a 19.1% K% vs. lefties in the past month. So we're not talking a huge K day here. But he just needs to get to 5, and he's almost literally a 1 K per inning guy as he has 35 punchouts in 35.2 IP and has has at least 5 K's in four of his last 6 starts. We're getting plus money here on what feels like an even money prop.
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Nationals at Padres: MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts +115
It's a Revenge Game! Once upon a time, Gore was on the Padres and rated as the best pitching prospect in baseball. It's taken a little time, but he's now just about an ace-tier SP as he's off to a 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP start. Most important for our purposes, the K's and innings are there. He goes an average of 5.81 IP per start, which is decent in 2025 MLB, with an excellent 32.3% K% that's fully supported buy a 32.4 Whiff% (94th percentile as per Statcast). He's punched out at least 6 in 12 of his 16 starts.
So why is this prop not higher? Well, the Padres are very tough to K, They rank dead last in MLB in K% vs. lefties at home at just 16.4%. VSiN projects Gore at 5.73 K's, so we're getting a bit of value here still as per their algo. I'll roll with it if for no other reason than Gore is likely to get through 6 IP so he won't need a monster K% to get there.
Red Sox at Angels: Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 Strikeouts -130
The southpaw has been a bit of a mixed bag in his first season in the shadow of Disneyland. He has a 3.01 ERA which sounds great, but its come with a scary 1.43 WHIP and hideous 11.2% BB%. His 22.6 K% would mark his worst number since 2019 in Seattle, as would his 9.9% SwStr%.
I still like this K prop however. First off, he's on a roll as he's whiffed 9 and then 10 in his last 2 starts. And the whiffs are back at 18.5% and 16.5% respectively. Secondly, the Sox have a 24.4% K% on the road vs. southpaws, in the lower half of MLB. VSiN projects 7.26 K's
MLB Best Bets
- Colton Gordon Over 4.5 Strikeouts +120
- MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts +115
- Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 Strikeouts -130
