This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, June 18
2025 Betting Record: 14-18 (-6.02 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 11-8 (+1.94 units)
I'm focused on a pair of talented left-handers that I expect to mostly dominate their inferior NL opponents on Wednesday's big slate.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Phillies at Marlins
- Phillies -0.5 - F5 (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Ranger Suarez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Best Bets
A talented, innings-eating left-hander in Ranger Suarez faces off with a Marlins team that has been abysmal versus southpaws all season. It sets the stage for what would appear to be two fairly clear-cut bets Wednesday.
Suarez is putting together a formidable campaign, pitching to a 5-1 record, 2.32 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across his first eight starts. The southpaw has been nearly unhittable on the road as well, where he's sporting an 0.87 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 20.2 innings.
Suarez also happens to be exceedingly comfortable pitching at Loan Depot Park, where he's taken the hill on 13 occasions during his career and posted a 5-2 record and 2.62 ERA, despite having to work around an atypically high .344 BABIP. Current Miami hitters haven't had much luck against him, supplying a collective .229 average and .564 OPS in 36 career encounters.
Suarez has gone at least six innings in seven of his first eight starts, and he's recorded at least 19 outs in five of those instances while falling just short with 18 outs in a couple of other turns. Miami also averages the fourth-fewest runs per first five innings per home game (1.9). Since May 1, the Marlins have an MLB-worst .158 average, .038 ISO, .208 wOBA and -12.5 wRAA against lefties at home.
The Phillies also own a 15-11-10 first five innings moneyline record on the road, while the Marlins are 10-18-8 in that split at home. They will trot out Adam Mazur, who pitched to a 7.49 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9 in his eight big-league starts with the Padres in 2024.
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MLB Picks for Pirates at Tigers
- SGP: Tigers -0.5- F5 and Under 6 total runs- F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers Best Bets
The Pirates limp along with a 29-45 record, including a 10-26 away mark, and have especially struggled when facing left-handed pitching this season. They now come up against 2024 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on Wednesday, setting up what could be a long and frustrating night for the Bucs.
Skubal, who carries a 7-2 record, 1.99 ERA and 0.81 WHIP overall, has been impressive wherever he's taken the mound. He's been particularly effective at home where the elite lefty sits on a 5-0 record, 1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9 in 47 innings. He's also pitched to a .200 BAA, .463 OPS and .207 wOBA at Commerica Park.
The Pirates seem like tailor-made opponents for an extension of that nearly impeccable body of work, considering Pittsburgh comes into the night carrying a 25.0% strikeout rate, .197 average, .265 wOBA and -9.8 wRAA versus lefties on the road this season. Current Bucs bats own a collective .188/.235/.188 slash line against Skubal in 34 career plate appearances.
Pittsburgh will counter Skubal with its own capable left-hander, Andrew Heaney. The veteran is enjoying a solid season in his own right, but he's been a bit more hittable on the road with a 3.72 ERA and 1.4 HR/9, numbers that are notably higher than his respective 2.95 and 1.1 figures in those categories at home.
Detroit also makes for a dangerous opponent, as the Tigers have an 11.6% walk rate, 14.8% strikeout rate, .281 average, .806 OPS and .347 wOBA against lefties at home since May 1.
The Tigers also come into Wednesday with an MLB-best 22-9-5 first five innings home moneyline record, while the Pirates sport a 12-15-9 record in that split on the road. Therefore, a first five innings SGP that gives us plenty of runway in terms of total runs scored and still affords us plus money on the price is my main bet, while another stingy performance by Skubal is a solid prop bet to complement that with.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Phillies -0.5 - F5 (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Ranger Suarez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Tigers -0.5- F5 and Under 6 total runs- F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
