This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, June 11
2025 Betting Record: 12-17 (-6.68 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 10-8 (+0.94 units)
I'm focusing on a game apiece in the NL and AL during Wednesday's slate and banking on some strong offensive showings by each home team.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Nationals at Mets
- Over 4.5 runs - F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Mets -0.5 - F3 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Washington Nationals at New York Mets Best Bets
This matchup between Jake Irvin and David Peterson has no shortage of aesthetically pleasing pitching stats, but that looks deceiving. Oddsmakers seem to be hedging about such a possibility, as the projected total is a relatively elevated 8.5 runs.
A closer look helps illustrate the reason why. To begin with, Irvin is a pitcher that seems to flirt with potential disaster pretty frequently, and his secondary metrics essentially scream regression. The right-hander enters with a 5-2 record, 4.02 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, and four of his victories have come on the road.
Yet, Irvin also has yielded a career-high 11.8 percent barrel rate and has a .284 xBA, .517 xSLG and .364 xwOBA. His xERA is also a bloated 5.17, and he's conceding a career-high 45.1 percent hard-hit rate. Irvin has pitched to a 4.73 ERA in 13.1 career innings at Citi Field, and the Mets came into Tuesday night's action with a .261 average, .803 OPS and .345 wOBA against righties at home in the last month, along with a +9.9 wRAA.
Peterson's situation is a bit different, but there's also a case to be made for him being somewhat vulnerable in this matchup. We'll start with how the Nationals have been stacking up against southpaws, which is illustrated by their .286 average, .834 OPS and .364 wOBA against lefties on the road since May 1. That sample also includes the second-highest hard-contact rate (41.1 percent) in that split.
Current Nats hitters have also had their fair share of success against Peterson. It's borne out by their .265 average and .330 OBP against him in 89 career plate appearances. Key players like CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Josh Bell and Luis Garcia all have multiple hits against Peterson in their careers, and the lefty's .262 xBA, career-high 47.1 percent hard-hit rate allowed and 3.77 xERA suggest he's been a bit luckier than his surface numbers might lead one to believe.
The projected F5 total of 4.5 runs here isn't an overly daunting one. The combined first-five-inning run averages for the two teams in the road/home splits that apply eclipse this total (Nats- 2.25/ Mets- 2.58), and Washington also yields 2.66 runs per first five per road game.
I'll therefore go with that as my main bet, and since New York does have the starting pitcher edge, a secondary bet on the Mets leading by at least a run after three frames is also in play.
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MLB Picks for Rays at Red Sox
- Red Sox moneyline (-116 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jarren Duran Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Best Bets
The offensive expectations for this Zack Littell-Walker Buehler pitching matchup are through the roof, as there are 10 total runs projected in a game where the BoSox are also home underdogs.
Buehler's most recent performance has helped fuel both of those developments, as he gave up seven runs (five earned) on seven hits over two innings while also issuing two walks and plunking a batter at Yankee Stadium. He had a fairly rough time against Atlanta in his prior start (5.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB). That outing ended a relative hot streak as he had a 3-1 record, 2.56 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 0.9 HR/9 across the 31.2 innings in his six previous trips to the mound.
The latter sample is more indicative of the Buehler I expect to see mostly emerge Wednesday night, even though that's going against odds. The veteran right-hander has a very good track record against current Rays bats over a modest sample, holding them to a collective .158/.238/.316 slash line with six Ks among 21 career plate appearances. He's also adapted to Fenway well, forging a 2-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 across his first 25.2 innings there as a member of the Red Sox.
The Rays have been pretty pedestrian against righties on the road of late, posting a .240 average, .123 ISO, .306 wOBA and -2.0 wRAA in that split over the last month of play. Tampa Bay also ranks in the bottom 10 in all of MLB with just 0.88 HRs per road game.
On the other side, Littell has some underlying metrics that hint at the fact he's been on the right side of luck more often than not on his way to a 3.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The right-hander is allowing the second-highest barrel rate of his career (11.9 percent) and also has a .268 xBA, .491 xSLG and .336 xwOBA. Littell also has both a 3.7 K/9 and 2.2 HR/9 across 41.1 road innings, yet he still somehow carries a 4-2 record and sub-4.00 ERA in that split. That combination of numbers seem to strongly suggest the gig is going to be up at some point for him. A matchup against a talented Red Sox lineup in a hitter-friendy home park, where Littell allowed a .304 average and .925 OPS while pitching to a 7.20 ERA in his one previous start.
Boston averages the fifth-most hits (8.97) and runs (5.26) per home game in all of MLB, and four members of the Red Sox's expected lineup – Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro – have career slugging percentages of .500 or higer against Littell. Therefore, I'm going to try and catch lightning in the bottle with a bet on Boston as an underdog and also roll with a total bases prop on Duran. The Sox OF has a .333 average with three doubles, a homer and zero strikeouts against Littell across 12 career encounters, as well as a .929 OPS and .402 wOBA against righties at Fenway.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Nationals-Mets Over 4.5 runs - F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Mets -0.5 - F3 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Red Sox moneyline (-116 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jarren Duran Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
