Last week, we took a look at some stash candidates and top win-now waiver options. This week, we'll look at things slightly differently, examining some of the biggest disappointments at every position and whether there is any hope of their performance turning around in the second half of the fantasy season.
Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!
Starting Pitchers
2024 -15.7 points per start; 2025 – 5.4
Pretty much nothing has gone right for Miller to start 2025. His walk rate is up five percentage points from his career rate, while his strikeout rate is down three percentage points. His velocity is also down across the board. Add in a stint on the injured list and you have one of the most disappointing beginnings to the season among starting pitchers.
The only apparent hope for a turnaround is if the elbow issue that sidelined him was also the cause of his struggles. The only way I'd look to acquire Miller is if I were comfortably in playoff position and looking to distance myself from other contending teams in the league with a pickup that I could easily bench or drop if it didn't work out.
2024 – 14.9 points per start; 2025 – 11.8
Ober's struggles have been more subtle compared to Miller's, but he's nevertheless on track to post his fewest points per game since the 2022 season. There are some obvious
Last week, we took a look at some stash candidates and top win-now waiver options. This week, we'll look at things slightly differently, examining some of the biggest disappointments at every position and whether there is any hope of their performance turning around in the second half of the fantasy season.
Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!
Starting Pitchers
2024 -15.7 points per start; 2025 – 5.4
Pretty much nothing has gone right for Miller to start 2025. His walk rate is up five percentage points from his career rate, while his strikeout rate is down three percentage points. His velocity is also down across the board. Add in a stint on the injured list and you have one of the most disappointing beginnings to the season among starting pitchers.
The only apparent hope for a turnaround is if the elbow issue that sidelined him was also the cause of his struggles. The only way I'd look to acquire Miller is if I were comfortably in playoff position and looking to distance myself from other contending teams in the league with a pickup that I could easily bench or drop if it didn't work out.
2024 – 14.9 points per start; 2025 – 11.8
Ober's struggles have been more subtle compared to Miller's, but he's nevertheless on track to post his fewest points per game since the 2022 season. There are some obvious explanations for his reduced effectiveness. His velocity continues to dip, as does his strikeout rate.
The even bigger problem is that he's struggled to work deep into games. He's averaged just over five innings per outing, including only one quality start in his last five trips to the mound. There's a better baseline for Ober as he's still been able to suppress runs effectively, but he's a better sell-high candidate for those with leaguemates who believe his 2023 and 2024 form is likely to return.
2023 – 12.3 points per start; 2025 – 3
To avoid repeating the same analysis for every player, we can skip the portion of Alcantara's write-up that says his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He deserves some benefit of the doubt after missing all of 2024 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and a slow start after a lengthy layoff isn't shocking.
There isn't a linear progression of improvement however, and the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner doesn't have any clear signs to point to that would illustrate improvement. Still, Alcantara has had two of his best strikeout performances since Opening Day over his last five starts. He's also started to pitch deeper into games. He completed at least five innings only three times in his first six starts. Since the calendar flipped to May, he's completed at least five innings in five of six outings. The signs are subtle, but Alcantara is worth plucking off waivers or buying at an extreme discount in a trade.
Hitters
2024 – 2.6 fantasy points per game; 2025 - 2.1
There are a number of underwhelming options at catcher, but both William Contreras and Rutschman stand out due to their draft position. However, Contreras has at least managed a .351 OBP with 34 runs across 58 games.
Rutschman, meanwhile, has sunk to near fantasy irrelevance based on his fantasy points per game average, but a lot of signs point to him being worth acquiring. His strikeout rate is within range of his career average and his walk rate remains high. Even better are his power indicators. Rutschman has an 8.9 percent barrel rate with a 41.1 percent hard-hit rate, both career bests. He fits the bill perfectly as a buy-low option.
2024 - 2.9 fantasy points per game; 2025 – 2.0
Things are more of a mixed bag for Walker. His strikeout rate is elevated, but it trended down in May to 24.1 percent. That would be more in line with his career norms, and a deeper dive into his swing profile suggests his results should continue to improve. Walker has been aggressive at the plate (51 percent swing rate) and his 85.2 percent in-zone contact rate is among the best of his career.
His quality of contact is also solid, as he's maintaining a double-digit barrel rate for the fourth consecutive campaign. If he can tone down the strikeouts, a big second half should follow. There's a risk his strikeout rate continues to deteriorate, but he's worth speculating on.
2024 - 2.9 fantasy points per game; 2025 – 1.8
Semien is one of the biggest busts of the season, though it was inevitable that at some point his age and the workload he's taken on throughout his career would catch up to him. The obvious problem is his 21.6 percent strikeout rate, seven percentage points higher than his rate each of the last two seasons.
Even with that, his expected stats suggest Semien deserves better numbers, highlighted by a .395 xSLG and a .245 xBA. There are reasons to be skeptical he'll get back to that level, even after his two-home run performance Thursday. His flyball rate has spiked to 46.6 percent and his infield flyball rate 12 percent. The result is a lot of easy outs, and his power output likely won't be enough to outweigh that.
2024 – 3.2 fantasy points per game; 2025 – 2.1
It's unfair to judge Adames relative to his 2024 season, which looked to be a career year at the time. Even so, his 2.1 fantasy points per game are his lowest mark since 2019. His strikeout and walk rates, and even the majority of his batted ball metrics, look similar to past productive seasons.
The exceptions are his pull rate and, more problematically, his pulled flyball rate. During his time in Milwaukee, Adames had pulled flyball rates at or above 20 percent, and that translated to at a least a 13.5 HR/FB. In 2025, those numbers have dipped to 15.6 and 6.4 percent, respectively. Adames' skills haven't completely fallen off and there should be a better second half coming, but don't expect a return to the 3.0 point per game threshold.
2024 - 2.6 fantasy points per game; 2025 - 2.1
Harris' case is straightforward. He isn't hitting the ball hard. His barrel rate has dipped to 5.9 percent and his hard hit rate is just 39.6 percent. All of his peripheral metrics suggest those outcomes aren't a fluke. However, his overall contact rate and zone contact rate both remain strong. A 24-year-old with Harris' pedigree likely didn't forget how to hit a baseball hard, so he's a buy-low option even without much supporting evidence in his skills profile.
