Closer Encounters: 2025 Relief Market Primer

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just over one month away on July 31 at 6 p.m. Eastern. I usually write this article within a week or two of the deadline, but with numerous high-profile relief pitchers likely to be on the trade block — I counted 11(!) as you dig further into the article below — now is a great time to preview the market. We generally start to see some movement during the month of July, though the majority of relief pitcher trades occur during the final week leading up to the deadline.

Which teams are likely to seek bullpen help for their respective playoff pushes? Which teams are likely to be sellers? Which relievers could be on the move? Where will they land?

Last July, there were 35-plus trades involving relief pitchers, highlighted by Tanner Scott to the Padres, Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, A.J. Puk to the Diamondbacks and Lucas Erceg to the Royals. Other key high-leverage relievers like Jason Adam, Yimi Garcia and Michael Kopech also changed locker rooms, demonstrating the importance of acquiring bullpen depth for teams with playoff aspirations.

Before we do some prognostication, let's first take a look at the MLB standings to identify teams that are likely to buy or sell relievers over this next month.

Standings are through June 26 and include the current Wild Card standings:

Looking at the six division races, the American League East, National League East and National League Central are the tightest through late-June. Detroit appears to be running away with the Central division in the AL, while the Astros and Dodgers have six-plus game leads in their respective divisions. Beyond that, there are nine teams in the AL competing for three Wild Card spots and seven teams in contention in the NL. Fortunately, we should get some clarity over this next month with teams further solidifying their place in the standings.

As of this writing, there are a handful of teams that will be obvious sellers in the relief market at this year's trade deadline.

Obvious Sellers

Rockies - Colorado has the worst record in baseball through late-June and has a bottom-five bullpen ERA. All of the team's high-leverage relievers are under team control through at least 2029, but the Rockies might want to capitalize on the success of multi-inning reliever Jake Bird, who leads this pen in ERA (2.62), strikeouts (56) and holds (10). 

White Sox - While Chicago is unlikely to trade any of its young relievers with upside like Grant Taylor or Jordan Leasure, 30-year-old Steven Wilson could draw interest among teams looking for a solid right-hander to handle the sixth through eighth innings. Wilson's strikeout and walk rates leave a lot to be desired, but he's racked up 44 career holds and maintained solid ratios for his career. Outfielder Luis Robert has been a hot-stove mainstay for a few years now and will draw the biggest headlines among White Sox players rumored to be traded.

Pirates - Finally, a team with a star reliever who has a decent chance of being traded this summer! David Bednar has also been the topic of trade rumors in recent years, but the Pirates have been reluctant to trade the Pittsburgh native thus far. Bednar got off to a disastrous start in 2025 that resulted in a surprising demotion to the minors, but the two-time All-Star has been outstanding since returning to the big leagues. Since mid-April, he's compiled a 2.02 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 38:6 K:BB across 26.2 innings. Bednar is under team control through 2026 and should be one of the most sought-after closers on the market this summer. Additionally, the Pirates' top setup man, Dennis Santana, could draw interest. Santana has racked up 14 saves-plus-holds and ranks seventh among qualified relievers with a 0.79 WHIP.

Nationals - Will the Nationals finally trade Kyle Finnegan? Washington elected to hold onto its star reliever at both the 2023 and 2024 trade deadlines, but it's fair to question whether contending teams were even interested in Finnegan at the time. The right-hander has never boasted elite ratios and his career 23.2 percent strikeout rate is only slightly above league average. However, the Nationals exposed their hand this off-season when they non-tendered Finnegan due to his rising arbitration costs before ultimately re-signing him on a cheaper one-year deal. Washington has no reason to hold the upcoming free-agent, so the only question is whether teams will be interested in Finnegan. The 33-year-old does have 106 career saves, which may be enough for contending clubs to come calling.

Marlins - We've seen Miami trade away star relievers before — see 2024: Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk — so I would imagine that anyone from its 2025 bullpen would be available. Anthony Bender is the most likely Marlins reliever to be dealt, as he's pitching well and under team control for two more seasons.

Athletics - Would the Athletics actually consider trading All-Star closer Mason Miller? Probably not. However, I suppose the odds aren't exactly 100 percent that he remains with the A's this season. Maybe 95-to-99 percent? Miller is under team control for four more seasons, through the 2029 campaign, and despite some ratio regression this season, the flamethrowing righty still boasts a remarkable 40.2 percent strikeout rate. Beyond Miller, the Athletics don't really have any relievers worth monitoring at the deadline this year. Jose Leclerc (lat) is a free-agent next season, but is currently on the 60-day injured list. Instead, the team is more likely to shop pending free-agents from its offense, such as Miguel Andujar and Luis Urias.

Now let's take a look at a few teams who are right on the fringe of becoming sellers at the trade deadline.

Fringe Sellers

Orioles - Baltimore's odds to make the playoffs in 2025 are incredibly slim. They're currently in last place in the AL East, 12 games behind the division leading Yankees, and seven games out of a Wild Card spot. After a 91-win season in 2024, the O's have stumbled in their rebuilding efforts, which could prompt general manager Mike Elias to trade star closer Felix Bautista. I suggested this might be a possibility back in May when speaking with Erik Halterman on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast. From a contractual perspective, Bautista is arbitration-eligible for a few more seasons. From a performance perspective, Bautista has been one of the highlights of Baltimore's 2025 season thus far. The Mountain has yet to be scored upon during the month of June and is riding a 10-game scoreless streak, during which he's compiled a 17:5 K:BB over 10 innings. It would require a haul for the Orioles to let go of the former All-Star, but teams might be willing to give up the capital to do so. In addition, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto are pending free-agents, while Andrew Kittredge ($9 million team option for 2026 with a $1 million buy-out) should draw plenty of interest.

Braves - Despite being 10 games out in the NL East and seven games out of the Wild Card spot, Baseball Reference still gives Atlanta an 11.8 percent chance to make the postseason. However, with Chris Sale dealing with a fractured ribcage and with no timeline to return, I think their chances are slim-to-none. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris have disappointed offensively and the upcoming return of Jurickson Profar isn't likely to push Ronald Acuna and company to the brink of playoff contention contention. The Braves' schedule in July isn't terrible, but this team has been so Jeckyll-and-Hyde in 2025 — they went 0-and-7 to open the month of June, then went 10-and-4 over their next 14 games before recently dropping two straight — that it's tough to see them making the postseason. Assuming the team does slip out of contention in the coming weeks, struggling righty Raisel Iglesias is a free agent next season and should draw interest from playoff-bound clubs based on his extensive high-leverage experience.

Diamondbacks - Arizona is in an interesting position. They're only three games back of an NL Wild Card spot but have a difficult road ahead with upcoming series against the Giants, Padres, Tigers, Astros and Cardinals in July. The D'Backs have also been devastated by injuries. They lost Corbin Burnes (elbow), A.J. Puk (elbow) and Justin Martinez (elbow) for the season, while two of their best hitters — Corbin Carroll (hand) and Gabriel Moreno (finger) — are currently ailing. Not to mention they play in the one of most competitive divisions in baseball. If Arizona falls out of the Wild Card race, Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks are two high-leverage relievers that are likely to change clubs since both are free-agents at the end of this season.

Will They Buy? Or Will They Sell?

Based on the standings, these teams are currently in position to be buyers in the relief market at the trade deadline, but things could easily shift the other way depending on how each club performs in the month of July.

Red Sox - Boston is two games under .500 and seven games back in the AL East division, but only two games out of a Wild Card spot. Red Sox closer and upcoming free agent Aroldis Chapman has been phenomenal during his age-37 campaign, posting a 1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 48:10 K:BB across 33 innings thus far. He currently boasts a career-best 7.9 percent walk rate and would be one of the most sought-after relievers on the market if Boston elects to sell. The Red Sox open July with favorable matchups against the Reds, Nationals and Rockies but embark on a brutal stretch to close out the month. Beginning July 10, they'll face off against the Rays, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers and Twins, all fellow playoff-contending clubs.

Cardinals - St. Louis is still in the mix for the NL Central division, as they currently sit 4.5 games back of the Cubs. A more likely path to the 2025 playoffs would be through the NL Wild Card, where they sit only one game back. What's interesting about the Cardinals' upcoming schedule is almost half of their 24 games in July will be against non-contenders like the Pirates, Nationals, Rockies and Marlins. A three-game series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs will be their most difficult test, but the remainder of their July schedule is against fringe contenders like the Padres, D'Backs and Braves. If St. Louis loses ground in the NL Wild Card race next month, Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton are the likeliest trade candidates, as both are free agents after this season. Helsley blew three consecutive saves to kick off the month of June and has struggled to a 1.46 WHIP, but interest in the right-hander should be high if he hits the trade market.

Angels - The Angels have been surprisingly competitive in 2025 and are currently only one game back of an AL Wild Card spot. Los Angeles is 14-9 this month after taking 5-of-6 games from the Red Sox, 3-of-4 from the Yankees and completing a 3-game sweep of the Athletics. July's schedule doesn't get any easier for the Angels with 11 contests against AL West division rivals in addition to series at the Phillies, Mets, Braves and Blue Jays. Closer Kenley Jansen is the team's most obvious trade candidate, as he's set to hit free agency after the season, but the 37-year-old might stay put with the Angels if they continue winning series like they have this month.

Twins - Minnesota was hot for a minute — they were 18-8 in May — but have boarded the struggle bus of late, stumbling to an 8-16 record in the month of June thanks to five- and six-game losing streaks. The Twins are only 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card standings, but are approaching a stretch of their schedule with matchups against the Rays, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox. Another poor month could force them to field calls on closer Jhoan Duran, who is arbitration eligible for two more seasons before hitting free agency in 2028. Duran's outstanding performance in 2025 will certainly drive up his arbitration costs. Southpaw Danny Coulombe is another trade candidate on the cusp of free agency after this season.

Other teams that don't seem too inclined to sell at the moment are:

Blue Jays - Chad Green is a free agent next season, while Yimi Garcia's deal expires after the 2026 campaign. Both would likely garner heavy interest if Toronto falls out of the AL Wild Card race.

Brewers

Reds - If Cincinnati ends up punting, closer Emilio Pagan, setup men Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow, and swingman Nick Martinez are all free agents after the season. As such, there could be ample opportunity for save speculation.

Guardians

Rays - I understand from a contractual perspective why Tampa Bay closer Pete Fairbanks would have his name being circulated in trade rumors, but from a competitive standpoint — the Rays are only a half-game back of the Yankees in the AL East — I'm not so sure a Fairbanks trade makes sense at the moment.

Royals - Kansas City recently overhauled its bullpen, acquiring both Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey (shoulder) at the 2024 deadline, then signing closer Carlos Estevez during this offseason. Harvey is a free agent next year but is currently rehabbing a shoulder injury, and teams might not be interested in his injury-prone profile.

Rangers - Chris Martin, Luke Jackson, Shawn Armstrong and Hoby Milner are current Texas relievers on the brink of free-agency next year. All but Jackson currently sport a WHIP under 1.00. Jackson boasts a 1.26 ERA and 1.05 WHIP since May 1.

Now that we've covered nearly two-thirds of the league already, which teams are most likely to acquire bullpen help over this next month?

Teams Likely to Seek Relief Help

Phillies - Philadelphia fans must be experiencing a bit of deja-vu, as the team's 4.63 bullpen ERA ranks 25th and is worst among current playoff contenders. With Jose Alvarado serving an 80-game suspension and Jordan Romano pitching to a 6.28 ERA thus far, it's clear they will be looking to acquire a reliable late-inning arm with closing experience.

Cubs - On the flip side, Chicago ranks fifth in bullpen ERA (3.37), but the team lacks a true star closer. Daniel Palencia has done an admirable job since he took over closing duties in late-May, securing eight saves in nine chances thus far, but would Cubs fans be comfortable with the third-year pro as their closer throughout the playoffs?

Yankees - New York made a splash this offseason by acquiring closer Devin Williams from Milwaukee. Williams struggled early on but is back to his dominant ways, going scoreless in 17 of his last 19 outings. During that stretch, he's compiled a 1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 24:2 K:BB over 17.2 innings with six saves and two wins. Luke Weaver carried the team throughout the 2024 playoffs and remains in the mix for save opportunities. Fernando Cruz leads qualified relievers with a 41.4 percent strikeout rate. While relievers in the Bronx have combined for a 3.53 ERA (10th), they could still use a left-handed reliever in this pen, as Tim Hill is currently the only southpaw available.

Mets - Edwin Diaz is one of the best closers in the league, but the bridge to "Sugar" in the ninth inning could use some reinforcement. New York overhauled its bullpen at last year's trade deadline and figure to be active on the relief market again in 2025. One of their pickups last season, Huascar Brazoban, has impressed with more leverage opportunities this year. Unfortunately, A.J. Minter (lat) is out for the season, while the Mets' top setup men — Reed Garrett and Ryne Stanek — each sport a 1.39 WHIP.

Dodgers - Los Angeles has been a top-five team by bullpen ERA for six straight seasons, dating all the way back to 2019, so I was surprised to see Dodgers currently rank 20th in the category (4.24). This is currently worse than the White Sox (4.15), Reds (3.98) and Pirates (3.92). Dodgers relievers have also combined for the most home runs allowed with 46. Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia form an excellent high-leverage triumvirate, while Michael Kopech has yet to be scored upon through eight appearances (seven innings) this season, but the team could use more depth. That could come in the form of Blake Treinen (forearm), who is progressing towards a return early next month, but Brusdar Graterol (shoulder) isn't close and Evan Phillips (elbow) is out for the year.

Giants - Similar to the Yankees, San Francisco could use another left-handed reliever, as Erik Miller has issued more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) this season. 

Tigers - Detroit signed Tommy Kahnle to a one-year deal this offseason, but haven't been very active on the relief market in recent years. However, the Tigers are currently tied for the league's best record at 51-31 and could shore up some leverage roles as the post-season approaches. Kahnle and Will Vest have been great, combining for 20 of the team's 23 saves through late June, but I wouldn't be surprised to see general manager Jeff Greenberg make a splash in a few short weeks.

Mariners - Andres Munoz and Matt Brash have been fantastic, but otherwise, Seattle's relief corps leaves a lot to be desired. Jerry Dipoto loves to wheel and deal, so don't be surprised if they acquire another leverage arm.

Padres - San Diego was the most active team on the relief market last year, adding Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing to an already-strong high-leverage corps. Obviously, Scott is no longer with the team, but A.J. Preller has shown his willingness to invest in the team's bullpen.

Relievers on the Move?

I've already provided some context as to why these relievers are on the trade block — most are due to the player's contract status and where their current team sits in the standings. Now let's put a number on the chances each reliever gets dealt and where they might end up.

Predicting trades is fun, though I fully realize I'm still not very good at it. I don't think I predicted a single trade destination correctly for any reliever that was on the block last year. However, I'm determined to get one or two of them right this year! Just be advised that I'm not an expert on prospects, so please don't put much stock into potential return packages. Try to pay more attention to the potential landing spot and subsequent impact to relief roles.

Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox - While Chapman will be a free agent after the season, he'll likely command a huge return as the top left-handed reliever available this summer.

Chances of getting traded: 70 percent

Prediction: Boston trades Chapman and Connor Wong to the Chicago Cubs for No. 4 prospect Jonathon Long and No. 6 prospect Jaxon Wiggins. Boston turns to a mix of Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten (shoulder) and Garrett Whitlock for save chances the rest of the season.

- Kenley Jansen, Angels

Chances of getting traded: 70 percent

Prediction: Los Angeles fields plenty of calls on Jansen — possibly from the Phillies, Cubs and maybe even the Tigers — but the Angels elect to hold onto the future Hall-of-Famer as they commit to a 2025 playoff push. If the Angels do trade Jansen, I'd expect Reid Detmers and Ryan Zeferjahn to close games for the remainder of the season.

(Author's note - I had to include at least one surprise during this exercise)

- David Bednar, Pirates

Chances of getting traded: 75 percent

Prediction: Pittsburgh trades Bednar in-state to Philadelphia for No. 6 prospect Justin Crawford and No. 9 prospect Otto Kemp. Bednar immediately slots in as the Phillies' "primary" closer, albeit with a 60-to-70 percent team save share similar to Carlos Estevez last year. Meanwhile, the Pirates deploy a closer committee the rest of the way between Chase Shugart, Isaac Mattson and Braxton Ashcraft.

- Ryan Helsley, Cardinals - I'm afraid St. Louis' upcoming schedule will convince them they're real contenders, but they have so many pending free-agents on their roster, it'd be a shame if they didn't capitalize on most of them for a return. Despite his struggles in 2025, Helsley should land the Cardinals a decent prospect or two.

Chances of getting traded: 50 percent

Prediction: St. Louis trades Helsley to the Los Angeles Dodgers for No. 5 prospect Mike Sirota and No. 23 prospect Edgardo Henriquez. Helsley joins Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia as part of an imposing bridge to Tanner Scott, while also getting the occasional save chance. Meanwhile, St. Louis takes a matchup-based approach to the ninth inning between Kyle Leahy and Riley O'Brien.

- Raisel Iglesias, Braves - I've covered Iglesias' struggles at length this season, but the veteran right-hander will undoubtedly draw plenty of interest on the relief market.

Chances of getting traded: 99 percent

Prediction: Atlanta trades Iglesias to the New York Mets for two mid-tier prospects. Iglesias serves as a setup man to Edwin Diaz, while Atlanta sticks with Dylan Lee in the ninth inning.

- Jhoan Duran, Twins - I would expect the Cubs and Phillies to aggressively pursue Duran this summer, but they'd need to be prepared to offer a mighty haul for the flamethrowing righty.

Chances of getting traded: 25 percent

Prediction: Duran remains with Minnesota, at least for the remainder of 2025.

- Kyle Finnegan, Nationals

Chances of getting traded: 99 percent

Prediction: I'm sticking with the prediction I had for Finnegan last year: Washington trades Finnegan to Seattle for a low-level prospect.

- Felix Bautista, Orioles - If Baltimore were to make Bautista available this summer, he would net them the best return out of all relievers on the market. Unless the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets or Phillies are willing to over-pay for his services, I think he's likely to remain with the O's.

Chances of getting traded: 10 percent

Prediction: Bautista remains with Baltimore.

- Emilio Pagan, Reds

Chances of getting traded: 75 percent

Prediction: Cincinnati trades Pagan to the Rays for a low-level prospect. Pagan gives Tampa Bay an alternative closing option in case Pete Fairbanks gets hurt.

- Pete Fairbanks, Rays

Chances of getting traded: 25 percent

Prediction: The Rays hold onto Fairbanks in their race for the AL East crown.

- Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks

Chances of getting traded: 95 percent

Prediction: Arizona trades Miller to Detroit for a lower-tier prospect. Miller returns to the Tigers, where he spent the 2024 campaign, and joins Vest and Kahnle as a capable option to close. Meanwhile, Arizona turns to Juan Morillo, or the struggling Kevin Ginkel, to close for the rest of the season.

- Chris Martin, Rangers

Chances of getting traded: 75 percent

Prediction: Texas falls out of the AL Wild Card race and trades Martin to the Dodgers for a lower-tier prospect. Martin maintains a setup role with no real impact on save chances.

- Dennis Santana, Pirates

Chances of getting traded: 99 percent

Prediction: Pittsburgh trades Santana to the New York Yankees — with whom he spent a few months of the 2024 campaign — for a lower-tier prospect.

- Jake Bird, Rockies

Chances of getting traded: 80 percent

Prediction: Colorado trades Bird to the Cubs for a mid-tier prospect.

- Anthony Bender, Marlins

Chances of getting traded: 99 percent

Prediction: Miami trades Bender to the Yankees for a lower-tier prospect.

As always, this article coincides with our Closer Grid, where myself and my awesome colleagues update each team's closer hierarchies and team blurbs as injuries, transactions and performance trends occur. Additionally, you'll find my updated closer in waiting rankings here, which I'll continue to adjust leading up to the trade deadline and throughout the remainder of the season.

In the meantime, feel free to share your relief pitcher trade predictions in the comments below, or @RyanRufe on X.